VEDL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals
Back to ListSwing Trade Rating: 3.4
| Stock Code | VEDL | Market Cap | 1,19,697 Cr. | Current Price | 306 ₹ | High / Low | 361 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 65.9 | Book Value | 200 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 14.2 % | ROCE | 2.74 % |
| ROE | 2.37 % | Face Value | 1.00 ₹ | DMA 50 | 302 ₹ | DMA 200 | 246 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | 1.78 % | Chg in DII Hold | -1.88 % | PAT Qtr | -298 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | -56.7 Cr. |
| RSI | 46.4 | MACD | -1.71 | Volume | 1,29,46,627 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 2,13,36,215 |
| Low price | 152 ₹ | High price | 361 ₹ | PEG Ratio | -1.14 | Debt to equity | 0.14 |
| 52w Index | 73.8 % | Qtr Profit Var | 16.1 % | EPS | 45.3 ₹ | Industry PE | 32.7 |
📊 VEDL shows weak fundamentals with negative earnings and poor efficiency metrics. The RSI at 46.4 indicates neutral-to-weak momentum, while the MACD at -1.71 signals bearish undertones. Current price (306 ₹) is above the 50DMA (302 ₹) and well above the 200DMA (246 ₹), reflecting short-term strength but long-term caution. ROCE (2.74%) and ROE (2.37%) are very low, suggesting inefficiency. Despite this, the dividend yield of 14.2% is attractive, though sustainability is questionable given recent losses.
💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 295–305 ₹ (near 50DMA support).
📈 Exit Strategy if Holding: Consider booking profits near 330–340 ₹ resistance zone, or cut losses if price falls below 290 ₹.
Positive
- ✅ Attractive dividend yield of 14.2% provides income support.
- ✅ EPS of 45.3 ₹ offers valuation visibility.
- ✅ Price above both 50DMA and 200DMA signals short-term bullishness.
- ✅ FII holdings increased (+1.78%), showing foreign investor confidence.
Limitation
- ⚠️ Negative PAT (-298 Cr.) after previous quarter loss (-56.7 Cr.).
- ⚠️ Very weak ROCE (2.74%) and ROE (2.37%).
- ⚠️ High P/E ratio (65.9 vs industry 32.7) indicates overvaluation.
- ⚠️ DII holdings decreased (-1.88%), showing reduced domestic confidence.
- ⚠️ PEG ratio of -1.14 suggests growth concerns.
Company Negative News
- 📉 Continued quarterly losses raise sustainability concerns.
- 📉 Weak efficiency metrics undermine long-term fundamentals.
Company Positive News
- 📈 Strong dividend yield attracts income-focused investors.
- 📈 Increase in FII holdings (+1.78%) shows foreign confidence.
Industry
- 🏭 Industry P/E at 32.7 is much lower, highlighting VEDL’s premium valuation.
- 🏭 Sector outlook remains cyclical, with commodity price swings impacting earnings.
Conclusion
🔎 VEDL is a weak candidate for swing trading due to poor fundamentals and negative earnings, despite short-term technical strength and high dividend yield. Entry near 295–305 ₹ may offer limited upside, but exits should be targeted around 330–340 ₹. Strict stop-loss discipline is essential given earnings volatility and valuation risks.
Would you like me to expand this into a long-term investment analysis or a peer benchmarking overlay to compare VEDL against other commodity sector stocks?