VBL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:02 am

Swing Trade Rating: 4.1

📊 VBL demonstrates strong fundamentals with high ROCE (23.8%) and ROE (20.1%), supported by very low debt (0.02). Technically, the stock is trading near its 50 DMA (469 ₹) and slightly below 200 DMA (490 ₹), showing consolidation. RSI at 52.3 is neutral, leaving room for upside. Valuation is stretched with a P/E of 60.6 compared to industry average of 47.4, but PEG ratio of 0.90 indicates earnings growth potential. Recent PAT decline (577 Cr. vs 1,160 Cr.) is a concern, though institutional support remains strong.

✅ Optimal Entry Price: 465–470 ₹ (near 50 DMA support)

🚪 Exit Strategy (if already holding): Consider exit near 510–520 ₹ (resistance zone), or if RSI rises above 70.

Positive

• 📈 Strong ROCE (23.8%) and ROE (20.1%) highlight efficient capital use.
• 💰 Low debt-to-equity (0.02) ensures financial stability.
• 📊 PEG ratio (0.90) suggests reasonable growth potential relative to valuation.
• 📉 High trading volume (28.9L) supports liquidity for swing trades.

Limitation

• ⚠️ High P/E (60.6) vs industry average (47.4) indicates overvaluation risk.
• 📉 Quarterly PAT decline from 1,160 Cr. to 577 Cr. raises earnings concerns.
• 📊 Price below 200 DMA (490 ₹) shows medium-term weakness.
• 📉 52w Index at 20.7% reflects underperformance compared to broader market.

Company Negative News

• 📉 Sequential profit decline highlights earnings volatility.

Company Positive News

• 📈 FII holding increased (+0.07%), showing foreign investor confidence.
• 📈 DII holding increased (+1.26%), reflecting strong domestic institutional support.

Industry

• 🏭 Industry P/E at 47.4 is lower, suggesting peers trade at more attractive valuations.
• 📊 Beverage sector outlook remains positive, supported by demand growth and brand strength.

Conclusion

⚖️ VBL is a good swing trade candidate with strong fundamentals and neutral technicals. Entry near 465–470 ₹ offers margin of safety, while exit near 510–520 ₹ is prudent. Valuation is stretched, so traders should maintain strict stop-loss discipline and monitor earnings trend closely.

Would you like me to extend this into a basket overlay with peer benchmarking so you can compare VBL against other FMCG and beverage peers for relative strength and valuation positioning?