ULTRACEMCO - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals
Back to ListSwing Trade Rating: 3.8
| Stock Code | ULTRACEMCO | Market Cap | 3,36,926 Cr. | Current Price | 11,430 ₹ | High / Low | 13,110 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 45.0 | Book Value | 2,534 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 0.68 % | ROCE | 12.7 % |
| ROE | 10.4 % | Face Value | 10.0 ₹ | DMA 50 | 11,455 ₹ | DMA 200 | 11,751 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | -0.83 % | Chg in DII Hold | 0.97 % | PAT Qtr | 2,616 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 1,570 Cr. |
| RSI | 53.2 | MACD | -75.7 | Volume | 3,90,562 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 3,08,669 |
| Low price | 10,325 ₹ | High price | 13,110 ₹ | PEG Ratio | 3.02 | Debt to equity | 0.27 |
| 52w Index | 39.7 % | Qtr Profit Var | -2.48 % | EPS | 251 ₹ | Industry PE | 30.0 |
📈 Optimal Entry Price: 11,350–11,450 ₹ (near 50 DMA support)
📉 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 11,800–12,000 ₹ (short-term resistance) or cut losses if price falls below 11,300 ₹.
Positive
- 📊 EPS at 251 ₹ supports strong earnings visibility.
- 📈 PAT improved (1,570 Cr. → 2,616 Cr.), showing operational strength.
- 💰 Dividend yield of 0.68% provides shareholder returns.
- 📊 RSI at 53.2 reflects balanced momentum.
- 📈 Volume (3.90 lakh) above weekly average (3.08 lakh), showing strong liquidity.
- 📊 DII holdings increased (+0.97%), showing domestic investor confidence.
Limitation
- ⚠️ High P/E ratio (45.0) compared to industry PE (30.0), indicating premium valuation.
- 📉 ROCE (12.7%) and ROE (10.4%) remain modest.
- 📊 PEG ratio at 3.02 suggests expensive valuation relative to growth.
- 📉 MACD negative (-75.7), signaling bearish momentum.
- ⚠️ FII holdings decreased (-0.83%), showing reduced foreign confidence.
Company Negative News
- ❌ Quarterly profit variation at -2.48% highlights earnings pressure.
- ⚠️ Valuation stretched relative to industry benchmarks.
- 📉 Decline in foreign institutional investor confidence.
Company Positive News
- ✅ PAT growth quarter-on-quarter shows operational improvement.
- 📈 Domestic institutional investors increasing stake.
- 📊 Strong 52-week performance (+39.7%).
Industry
- 🌐 Industry PE at 30.0 is lower than ULTRACEMCO’s PE (45.0), highlighting premium valuation.
- 📊 Cement sector demand remains strong, supported by infrastructure growth and housing projects.
Conclusion
⚖️ ULTRACEMCO is a moderate swing trade candidate with strong fundamentals and sector support but faces valuation risks and weak technicals. Entry near 11,350–11,450 ₹ offers favorable risk-reward, with exit near 11,800–12,000 ₹. Stop-loss should be maintained around 11,300 ₹ due to bearish momentum and earnings pressure.
This analysis frames ULTRACEMCO as a fundamentally strong but technically cautious swing candidate. Would you like me to extend this into a cement sector overlay comparing peers like Shree Cement and Ambuja Cement to benchmark its swing potential?