ULTRACEMCO - IntraDay Trade Analysis with Live Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:04 am

IntraDay Trade Rating: 3.3

📊 Analysis: ULTRACEMCO is trading at ₹11,497, below both 50 DMA (₹11,795) and 200 DMA (₹11,820), showing bearish bias. RSI at 41.5 indicates weak momentum, while MACD at -85.9 confirms strong negative pressure. Current volume (1.1L) is below average (1.7L), suggesting limited intraday participation. Fundamentals remain solid with EPS ₹249 and strong market cap, but sequential PAT decline (₹2,232 Cr. → ₹1,064 Cr.) weakens sentiment. Valuation is stretched with P/E 46.4 vs industry 33.2.

💹 Optimal Buy Price: ₹11,450–₹11,500 (speculative entry near current levels).

🎯 Profit-Taking Exit Levels: ₹11,600 (short target), ₹11,750 (extended target if rebound sustains).

🛡️ Stop-Loss / Loss Protection: ₹11,350 (below intraday support).

⏱️ If Already Holding: Exit near ₹11,600–₹11,750 if rebound occurs. If RSI fails to recover above 45 or MACD stays negative, consider early exit. A break below ₹11,350 should trigger stop-loss.

Positive

• 📈 EPS 249 ₹ supports strong earnings visibility.
• 💰 Dividend Yield 0.68% provides shareholder return.
• 📊 FII holding increased (+0.10%), showing foreign investor confidence.
• 🔥 Qtr Profit Var +56.5% highlights year-on-year improvement despite sequential decline.

Limitation

• ⚠️ Current price below DMA 50 & 200 shows weak trend.
• 📉 PAT declined from ₹2,232 Cr. to ₹1,064 Cr., weakening sentiment.
• 📊 RSI 41.5 and MACD -85.9 confirm bearish momentum.
• 💡 High P/E 46.4 vs industry average (33.2), showing valuation premium.

Company Negative News

• 📉 DII holding reduced (-0.20%), showing weaker domestic support.

Company Positive News

• 📈 FII holding increased (+0.10%), reflecting foreign investor confidence.

Industry

• 🌐 Cement sector trades at PE 33.2, lower than ULTRACEMCO’s valuation (46.4).
• 📊 Sector outlook stable, but ULTRACEMCO trades at premium requiring momentum confirmation.

Conclusion

⚖️ ULTRACEMCO is a moderate intraday candidate. Fundamentals remain strong, but weak technicals, stretched valuation, and declining profits limit upside. Suitable only for cautious momentum scalps with strict stop-loss discipline rather than aggressive intraday positions.

Would you like me to extend this into a cement sector basket overlay with peers like Shree Cement, ACC, and Ramco Cements to benchmark ULTRACEMCO’s intraday setup across the industry?