ULTRACEMCO - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

Technical Rating: 3.4

📉 ULTRACEMCO is currently in a reversal phase with bearish short-term momentum and weak volume support. Entry zone: ₹11,800–₹11,941; exit zone: ₹12,200–₹12,350. Watch for MACD recovery and RSI bounce to confirm trend reversal.

📊 Technical Overview

• Price Action: Trading at ₹11,941, below 50-DMA (₹12,234) but slightly above 200-DMA (₹11,880), indicating medium-term support but short-term weakness.
• RSI (41.5): Weak momentum, nearing oversold territory, suggesting potential for technical bounce.
• MACD (-89.8): Bearish crossover, confirming downward pressure.
• Bollinger Bands: Price near lower band, indicating oversold conditions with possible support.
• Volume: Significantly below 1-week average, showing weak participation and low conviction.
• Support Zones: ₹11,800 (S1), ₹11,600 (S2)
• Resistance Zones: ₹12,200 (R1), ₹12,350 (R2)

✅ Positive

• EPS of ₹249 supports valuation and earnings visibility.
• ROCE (11.7%) and ROE (9.69%) reflect moderate capital efficiency.
• Price holding above 200-DMA suggests long-term support remains intact.
• FII holdings increased (+0.10%), showing cautious foreign investor interest.

⚠️ Limitation

• Stock P/E (48.2) is significantly higher than industry average (38.9), indicating premium valuation.
• MACD and RSI both show bearish signals, limiting short-term upside.
• Volume trends are weak, reducing breakout potential.
• PEG ratio of -14.5 reflects poor earnings growth relative to valuation.

📉 Company Negative News

• Quarterly PAT dropped from ₹2,232 Cr. to ₹1,064 Cr., a 52% decline.
• DII holdings declined (-0.20%), reflecting reduced domestic institutional confidence.

📈 Company Positive News

• Quarterly profit variation of +56.5% YoY shows strong annual growth despite sequential dip.
• Strong brand presence and leadership in the cement sector support long-term fundamentals.

🏢 Industry

• Cement sector benefits from infrastructure push and real estate demand recovery.
• Industry P/E of 38.9 reflects moderate valuation across peers.

🧭 Conclusion

• ULTRACEMCO is in a reversal phase with bearish momentum and weak technical indicators.
• Entry zone: ₹11,800–₹11,941; exit zone: ₹12,200–₹12,350 for short-term bounce trades.
• Long-term investors may accumulate on dips, supported by sector tailwinds and strong fundamentals.