ULTRACEMCO - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:55 pm

Technical Rating: 3.5

📈 Technical Analysis

• Chart Patterns: ULTRACEMCO is trading near the mid-range of its 52-week performance (11,497 ₹ vs 13,102 ₹ high), showing weakness after a sharp decline in quarterly profits.
• Moving Averages: Current price (11,497 ₹) is below both 50 DMA (11,795 ₹) and 200 DMA (11,820 ₹), confirming bearish bias.
• RSI: At 41.5, RSI indicates weak momentum, leaning toward oversold territory.
• MACD: Strongly negative at -85.9, signaling bearish continuation.
• Bollinger Bands: Price near lower band, suggesting oversold condition and possible minor rebound.
• Volume Trends: Current volume (1.09L) is lower than average weekly volume (1.72L), showing reduced participation and weaker conviction.

🎯 Momentum & Trade Zones

• Support Levels: 11,400 ₹ immediate support, 11,000 ₹ strong support, and long-term support at 10,048 ₹.
• Resistance Levels: 11,795 ₹ (50 DMA) and 11,820 ₹ (200 DMA).
• Entry Zone: Accumulate cautiously near 11,400–11,500 ₹ if rebound signals appear.
• Exit Zone: Short-term exit near 11,800–12,000 ₹.
• Trend: Stock is currently reversing downward with weak momentum, possible consolidation near support levels.

✅ Positive

• EPS at 249 ₹ reflects strong earnings base.
• Dividend yield at 0.68% provides shareholder return.
• FII holding increased slightly (+0.10%).
• Debt-to-equity ratio at 0.30, showing manageable leverage.

⚠️ Limitation

• Stock trading below both 50 & 200 DMA, confirming bearish trend.
• ROCE (11.7%) and ROE (9.69%) are relatively weak compared to peers.
• High P/E ratio (46.4) compared to industry average (33.2), suggesting overvaluation.
• PEG ratio at -14.0 indicates poor earnings growth relative to valuation.
• Volume lower than average, showing reduced investor interest.

📉 Company Negative News

• Quarterly PAT dropped sharply from 2,232 Cr. to 1,064 Cr.
• DII holding reduced by -0.20%, showing weaker domestic institutional confidence.
• Weak technical indicators (RSI & MACD) reflect bearish momentum.

📊 Company Positive News

• Quarterly profit variation (+56.5%) shows improvement compared to previous year despite sequential decline.
• FII holding increased slightly (+0.10%), showing foreign support.
• Strong EPS and dividend yield provide investor appeal.

🏭 Industry

• Industry P/E at 33.2, lower than ULTRACEMCO’s 46.4, suggesting premium valuation.
• Cement sector outlook remains steady, but margin pressures persist due to input costs.

📝 Conclusion

• ULTRACEMCO is in a bearish reversal phase, trading below key moving averages.
• Oversold RSI suggests possible short-term bounce, but momentum remains weak.
• Best strategy: cautious accumulation near 11,400–11,500 ₹ with strict stop-loss; exit near 11,800–12,000 ₹.
• Medium-term outlook cautious; recovery depends on earnings improvement and price sustaining above 11,820 ₹ resistance levels.