UBL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:02 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.6

📊 UBL is currently trading at ₹1,595, below both its 50 DMA (₹1,729) and 200 DMA (₹1,861), reflecting weak technical momentum. RSI at 20.4 suggests the stock is deeply oversold, which could allow a short-term rebound. However, MACD at -39.5 indicates strong bearish sentiment. The optimal entry price would be near ₹1,570–₹1,590, closer to support levels. If already holding, consider exiting around ₹1,700–₹1,750, where resistance is expected.

✅ Positive

• 📈 EPS at ₹13.8, maintaining profitability despite earnings decline
• 💰 Dividend yield of 0.63%, providing modest shareholder return
• 📉 Debt-to-equity ratio at 0.18, showing low leverage risk
• 📊 DII holding increased by 0.31%, reflecting domestic institutional support

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Current price below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA, confirming weak technical trend
• 📊 Very high P/E ratio (111) compared to industry average (36.2), suggesting extreme overvaluation
• 📉 PEG ratio at 13.9, indicating poor growth prospects relative to valuation
• 📉 Low ROCE (13.9%) and ROE (10.8%), reflecting weak efficiency
• 📉 52-week index at 2.89%, showing poor performance compared to peers

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 PAT dropped sharply from ₹184 Cr. to ₹47 Cr.
• 📉 Quarterly profit variation at -64.5%, showing significant earnings deterioration
• 📉 FII holding decreased by -0.47%, showing reduced foreign investor confidence
• 📉 Trading volume (37,164) below weekly average (60,354), indicating weaker participation

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 EPS at ₹13.8, maintaining profitability despite sector challenges
• 📊 DII inflows (+0.31%) provide stability against FII outflows

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry P/E at 36.2 is much lower, suggesting UBL trades at a steep premium
• 🌐 Alcoholic beverages sector remains resilient with long-term demand, but cyclical pressures affect margins

📌 Conclusion

UBL is a weak swing trade candidate due to poor technicals, sharp earnings decline, and extreme overvaluation. While oversold RSI levels may trigger a short-term bounce, risks outweigh rewards. Entry is best near ₹1,570–₹1,590, while exit should be considered around ₹1,700–₹1,750. Traders should remain cautious and monitor quarterly results closely before committing.

I can also compare UBL’s swing trade setup with peers like RADICO or GLOBUSSPR to highlight relative opportunities in the beverages sector. Would you like me to prepare that?