UBL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals
Back to ListSwing Trade Rating: 3.4
| Stock Code | UBL | Market Cap | 35,433 Cr. | Current Price | 1,341 ₹ | High / Low | 2,110 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 94.8 | Book Value | 171 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 0.75 % | ROCE | 10.7 % |
| ROE | 8.43 % | Face Value | 1.00 ₹ | DMA 50 | 1,397 ₹ | DMA 200 | 1,587 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | -0.56 % | Chg in DII Hold | 0.63 % | PAT Qtr | 40.5 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 92.0 Cr. |
| RSI | 46.0 | MACD | -16.9 | Volume | 1,25,190 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 86,133 |
| Low price | 1,276 ₹ | High price | 2,110 ₹ | PEG Ratio | 20.3 | Debt to equity | 0.29 |
| 52w Index | 7.83 % | Qtr Profit Var | -58.4 % | EPS | 15.6 ₹ | Industry PE | 42.5 |
📈 Optimal Entry Price: 1,320–1,340 ₹ (near support zone close to 50 DMA)
📉 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 1,380–1,400 ₹ (short-term resistance) or cut losses if price falls below 1,300 ₹.
Positive
- 📊 EPS at 15.6 ₹ provides earnings visibility.
- 📈 Dividend yield of 0.75% offers shareholder returns.
- 📊 RSI at 46.0 indicates stock is not overbought, potential for recovery.
- 📉 Debt-to-equity ratio at 0.29, reflecting manageable leverage.
- 📊 DII holdings increased (+0.63%), showing domestic investor confidence.
Limitation
- ⚠️ High P/E ratio (94.8) compared to industry PE (42.5), indicating overvaluation.
- 📉 ROCE (10.7%) and ROE (8.43%) remain modest.
- 📊 PEG ratio at 20.3 suggests expensive valuation relative to growth.
- 📉 MACD negative (-16.9), signaling bearish momentum.
- ⚠️ Current price below both 50 DMA (1,397 ₹) and 200 DMA (1,587 ₹), showing medium-term weakness.
- 📉 FII holdings decreased (-0.56%), showing reduced foreign confidence.
Company Negative News
- ❌ Quarterly profit variation at -58.4% highlights earnings pressure.
- ⚠️ Valuation stretched relative to industry benchmarks.
- 📉 Decline in foreign institutional investor confidence.
Company Positive News
- ✅ Dividend yield supports investor returns.
- 📈 Domestic institutional investors increasing stake.
- 📊 Strong liquidity with volume (1.25 lakh) above weekly average (86k).
Industry
- 🌐 Industry PE at 42.5 is much lower than UBL’s PE (94.8), highlighting premium valuation.
- 📊 Alcoholic beverages sector remains resilient with steady demand but cyclical margins.
Conclusion
⚖️ UBL is a cautious swing trade candidate with dividend support and domestic investor confidence but faces valuation risks, weak technicals, and earnings pressure. Entry near 1,320–1,340 ₹ offers limited upside, with exit near 1,380–1,400 ₹. Stop-loss should be maintained around 1,300 ₹ due to bearish momentum and sector volatility.
This analysis frames UBL as a valuation-heavy but liquidity-supported swing candidate. Would you like me to extend this into a beverages sector overlay comparing it with Radico Khaitan and United Spirits to benchmark its swing potential?