UBL - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:55 pm

Technical Rating: 2.9

📈 Technical Analysis

• Chart Patterns: UBL is trading near its 52-week low (1,595 ₹ vs 2,300 ₹ high), showing strong bearish bias.
• Moving Averages: Current price (1,595 ₹) is below both 50 DMA (1,729 ₹) and 200 DMA (1,861 ₹), confirming downward trend.
• RSI: At 20.4, RSI indicates oversold conditions, suggesting potential short-term rebound.
• MACD: Strongly negative at -39.5, signaling bearish continuation.
• Bollinger Bands: Price near lower band, suggesting oversold condition and possible minor bounce.
• Volume Trends: Current volume (37K) is lower than average weekly volume (60K), showing weak participation and lack of conviction.

🎯 Momentum & Trade Zones

• Support Levels: 1,574 ₹ immediate support, 1,550 ₹ strong support.
• Resistance Levels: 1,729 ₹ (50 DMA) and 1,861 ₹ (200 DMA).
• Entry Zone: Accumulate cautiously near 1,580–1,600 ₹ if rebound signals appear.
• Exit Zone: Short-term exit near 1,720–1,750 ₹; medium-term exit near 1,850 ₹.
• Trend: Stock is currently reversing downward with oversold signals suggesting possible consolidation or minor rebound.

✅ Positive

• Dividend yield at 0.63% provides shareholder return.
• EPS at 13.8 ₹ reflects earnings base.
• DII holding increased by 0.31%, showing domestic institutional support.
• Debt-to-equity ratio at 0.18, showing low leverage.

⚠️ Limitation

• Stock trading below both 50 & 200 DMA, confirming bearish trend.
• High P/E ratio (111) compared to industry average (36.2), suggesting extreme overvaluation.
• PEG ratio at 13.9 indicates poor earnings growth relative to valuation.
• 52-week index at only 2.89%, reflecting severe underperformance.
• Volume significantly lower than average, showing weak investor interest.

📉 Company Negative News

• Quarterly PAT dropped sharply from 184 Cr. to 47 Cr. (-64.5%).
• FII holding reduced by -0.47%, showing weaker foreign investor confidence.
• Weak technical indicators (RSI & MACD) reflect strong bearish momentum.

📊 Company Positive News

• DII holding increased by 0.31%, showing domestic support.
• Low debt-to-equity ratio ensures financial stability.

🏭 Industry

• Industry P/E at 36.2, much lower than UBL’s 111, suggesting premium valuation.
• Beverages sector outlook remains steady, but company-specific earnings weakness overshadows industry strength.

📝 Conclusion

• UBL is in a bearish reversal phase, trading near its 52-week low.
• Oversold RSI suggests possible short-term bounce, but fundamentals remain weak.
• Best strategy: cautious accumulation near 1,580–1,600 ₹ with strict stop-loss; exit near 1,720–1,750 ₹.
• Medium-term outlook cautious; recovery depends on earnings improvement and price sustaining above 1,729–1,861 ₹ resistance levels.