UBL - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

Technical Rating: 3.2

📉 UBL is currently in a reversal phase with weak momentum and declining volume. Entry zone: ₹1,750–₹1,797; exit zone: ₹1,840–₹1,880. Watch for MACD strength and RSI bounce above 50 to confirm recovery.

📊 Technical Overview

• Price Action: Trading at ₹1,797, below both 50-DMA (₹1,824) and 200-DMA (₹1,919), indicating short-term and medium-term weakness.
• RSI (48.2): Neutral to weak, suggesting lack of strong momentum.
• MACD (2.12): Mild bullish crossover, but not yet supported by volume or price action.
• Bollinger Bands: Price near mid-band, indicating consolidation with downside risk.
• Volume: Below 1-week average, showing weak participation and low conviction.
• Support Zones: ₹1,750 (S1), ₹1,738 (S2)
• Resistance Zones: ₹1,840 (R1), ₹1,880 (R2)

✅ Positive

• ROCE (13.9%) and ROE (10.8%) reflect moderate operational efficiency.
• EPS of ₹13.8 supports valuation stability.
• Dividend yield of 0.56% offers modest income potential.
• DII holdings increased (+0.31%), showing domestic institutional support.

⚠️ Limitation

• Stock P/E (125) is significantly higher than industry average (35.6), indicating overvaluation.
• PEG ratio of 15.7 suggests poor earnings growth relative to valuation.
• Price trading below both key moving averages confirms bearish bias.
• Volume trends are weak, limiting breakout potential.

📉 Company Negative News

• Quarterly PAT dropped from ₹184 Cr. to ₹47 Cr., a 64.5% decline.
• FII holdings declined (-0.47%), reflecting reduced foreign investor confidence.

📈 Company Positive News

• MACD crossover and RSI stabilization suggest early signs of technical recovery.
• Strong brand presence and market leadership in the beverage segment support long-term fundamentals.

🏢 Industry

• FMCG and beverage sector benefits from rising consumer demand and premiumization trends.
• Industry P/E of 35.6 reflects moderate valuation across peers.

🧭 Conclusion

• UBL is in a reversal phase with weak technical indicators and low volume support.
• Entry zone: ₹1,750–₹1,797; exit zone: ₹1,840–₹1,880 for short-term bounce trades.
• Long-term investors should wait for confirmation above 50-DMA and earnings stability before accumulating.