UBL - IntraDay Trade Analysis with Live Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:04 am

IntraDay Trade Rating: 2.7

📊 Analysis: UBL is trading at ₹1,595, well below both 50 DMA (₹1,729) and 200 DMA (₹1,861), showing strong bearish bias. RSI at 20.4 indicates oversold conditions, while MACD at -39.5 confirms heavy negative momentum. Current volume (37K) is below average (60K), suggesting weak intraday participation. Fundamentals are modest with ROCE 13.9% and ROE 10.8%, but sequential PAT decline (₹184 Cr. → ₹47 Cr.) weakens sentiment. Valuation is stretched with P/E 111 vs industry 36.2.

💹 Optimal Buy Price: ₹1,585–₹1,600 (speculative entry near current levels).

🎯 Profit-Taking Exit Levels: ₹1,620 (short target), ₹1,645 (extended target if rebound sustains).

🛡️ Stop-Loss / Loss Protection: ₹1,570 (below intraday support).

⏱️ If Already Holding: Exit near ₹1,620–₹1,645 if rebound occurs. If RSI fails to recover above 30 or MACD stays negative, consider early exit. A break below ₹1,570 should trigger stop-loss.

Positive

• 📈 ROCE 13.9% and ROE 10.8% show moderate capital efficiency.
• 💰 Dividend Yield 0.63% provides shareholder return.
• 📊 DII holding increased (+0.31%), reflecting domestic institutional support.
• 🔥 Debt-to-Equity 0.18 indicates low leverage risk.

Limitation

• ⚠️ Current price below DMA 50 & 200 shows weak trend.
• 📉 PAT declined sharply from ₹184 Cr. to ₹47 Cr.
• 📊 RSI 20.4 and MACD -39.5 confirm strong bearish momentum.
• 💡 High P/E 111 vs industry average (36.2), showing valuation premium.

Company Negative News

• 📉 FII holding reduced (-0.47%), showing foreign investor caution.
• 📉 Quarter Profit Var -64.5% reflects sharp earnings decline.

Company Positive News

• 📈 DII holding increased (+0.31%), reflecting domestic support.

Industry

• 🌐 Breweries & beverages sector trades at PE 36.2, much lower than UBL’s valuation (111).
• 📊 Sector outlook stable, but UBL trades at premium requiring momentum confirmation.

Conclusion

⚖️ UBL is a weak intraday candidate. Oversold RSI may trigger rebound trades, but bearish technicals, sharp profit decline, and stretched valuation suggest caution. Suitable only for speculative scalps with strict stop-loss discipline rather than aggressive intraday positions.

Would you like me to extend this into a beverages sector basket overlay with peers like United Spirits, Radico Khaitan, and Globus Spirits to benchmark UBL’s intraday setup across the industry?