RVNL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 3.8

📊 Swing Trade Analysis: Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL)

RVNL offers a moderately strong swing trade setup, with bullish technical indicators and decent fundamentals. However, high valuation and recent earnings volatility suggest caution. It’s suitable for short-term traders who can manage risk actively and monitor momentum closely.

✅ Strengths

Technical Momentum

RSI: 67.6 → Bullish, nearing overbought.

MACD: 3.46 → Positive crossover, indicating upward momentum.

Price above DMA50 (₹348) and approaching DMA200 (₹375) → Short-term uptrend.

Fundamental Stability

ROCE: 15.0% and ROE: 14.4% → Solid capital efficiency.

Debt-to-Equity: 0.63 → Reasonable leverage.

EPS: ₹5.27 → Stable earnings base.

Institutional Support

DII Holding ↑ 0.17% → Mild domestic accumulation.

⚠️ Weaknesses

Valuation Concerns

P/E: 68.8 vs Industry PE: 20.6 → Highly overvalued.

PEG Ratio: 22.9 → Expensive relative to growth.

Earnings Volatility

PAT dropped from ₹373 Cr. to ₹128 Cr. → -41.3% quarterly variation.

Volume Drop

Current volume (79.87L) < 1-week average (1.29 Cr.) → Declining interest.

FII Holding ↓ 0.18% → Mild foreign investor pullback.

Low Dividend Yield: 0.47% → Minimal passive income.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Buy Zone: ₹345–₹355

Near DMA50 and recent support, offering a safer entry with limited downside.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Holding)

Target Exit: ₹385–₹400

Near DMA200 and short-term resistance.

Stop Loss: ₹335

Below recent support to manage downside risk.

This setup suits momentum-driven swing traders who can act quickly and exit on strength. Let me know if you'd like help tracking MACD or RSI signals for timing your entry.

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