RVNL - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

📊 Swing Trade Analysis: Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd. (RVNL)

Swing Trade Rating: 2.2

📉 Technical Condition

Price at ₹360 is below both DMA 50 (₹385) and DMA 200 (₹392) — signals short-term weakness.

RSI: 31.4 — in oversold territory, may hint at a near-term bounce, but no confirmation yet.

MACD: −8.62 — strongly negative, confirming bearish momentum.

Volume is only slightly above average, showing mild interest.

📊 Fundamental Snapshot

Valuation

P/E of 58.5 — significantly above industry average (23.8); suggests overvaluation.

PEG Ratio of 11.9 — implies growth isn't keeping pace with price.

Profitability

ROCE: 14.7% & ROE: 14.0% — decent, though not exceptional.

EPS at ₹6.15 — modest for the valuation level.

PAT grew from ₹311 Cr. to ₹459 Cr. — improvement, but quarterly profit variation of −4.03% indicates inconsistency.

Debt & Dividend

Debt-to-equity: 0.57 — manageable.

Dividend Yield: 0.59% — low but positive.

Institutional Activity

FII down (−0.18%) and DII slightly up (+0.17%) — neutral to slightly bearish outlook.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Ideal Buy Zone: ₹340–₹345

Near recent support and psychological round numbers.

Entry only advisable on RSI rebound >38 and MACD flattening.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Target Exit: ₹375–₹380

Matches resistance near DMA levels.

Stop-Loss: ₹330

Beneath swing support to preserve capital.

RVNL isn’t showing favorable technical momentum for a swing setup at the moment. Its fundamentals are steady but valuation is lofty, and downside risk remains. If you’re holding, consider waiting for a reversal signal before adding more or aim to exit near resistance. If you’re scouting stronger momentum plays, I can pull some breakout candidates from infrastructure or PSU space that are showing better trend setups. 🛤️📈

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