RVNL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals
Back to ListSwing Trade Rating: 3.2
| Stock Code | RVNL | Market Cap | 67,398 Cr. | Current Price | 324 ₹ | High / Low | 448 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 67.9 | Book Value | 41.2 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 0.53 % | ROCE | 15.0 % |
| ROE | 14.4 % | Face Value | 10.0 ₹ | DMA 50 | 333 ₹ | DMA 200 | 349 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | 0.31 % | Chg in DII Hold | -0.02 % | PAT Qtr | 196 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 128 Cr. |
| RSI | 44.7 | MACD | -2.24 | Volume | 1,01,17,008 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 2,02,71,598 |
| Low price | 295 ₹ | High price | 448 ₹ | PEG Ratio | 22.6 | Debt to equity | 0.56 |
| 52w Index | 19.1 % | Qtr Profit Var | -35.2 % | EPS | 4.76 ₹ | Industry PE | 17.1 |
📊 Analysis: RVNL trades at a steep valuation (P/E 67.9 vs industry 17.1) despite moderate efficiency metrics (ROCE 15.0%, ROE 14.4%). EPS at ₹4.76 is modest relative to price, and PEG ratio (22.6) signals expensive growth expectations. The current price (₹324) is below both 50 DMA (₹333) and 200 DMA (₹349), reflecting technical weakness. RSI at 44.7 suggests neutral-to-weak momentum, while MACD (-2.24) confirms bearish bias. Quarterly PAT declined (₹128 Cr → ₹196 Cr but with -35.2% variation), raising concerns about earnings consistency. Despite FII inflows (+0.31%) and low debt-to-equity (0.56), valuations and weak technicals limit upside potential.
💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around ₹310–₹315 (near support zone close to recent lows).
🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider booking profits near ₹340–₹345 (DMA resistance). Exit below ₹305 if weakness persists to protect capital.
✅ Positive
- Moderate ROCE (15.0%) and ROE (14.4%).
- Debt-to-equity ratio at 0.56 is manageable.
- FII holdings increased (+0.31%).
- Strong sectoral demand from infrastructure and railway projects.
⚠️ Limitation
- Valuation premium (P/E 67.9 vs industry 17.1).
- PEG ratio of 22.6 indicates expensive growth expectations.
- Price trading below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA.
- MACD shows bearish trend.
📉 Company Negative News
- Quarterly profit variation at -35.2% shows earnings pressure.
- Weak 52-week index at 19.1% reflects poor price performance.
- DII holdings decreased (-0.02%).
📈 Company Positive News
- Sequential PAT improved from ₹128 Cr to ₹196 Cr.
- FII inflows support investor confidence.
- Volume activity remains strong despite lower averages.
🏭 Industry
- Industry P/E at 17.1 highlights RVNL’s extreme overvaluation.
- Railway and infrastructure sector benefits from government spending and expansion projects.
🔎 Conclusion
RVNL is fundamentally decent with moderate efficiency and manageable debt, but stretched valuations and weak technical signals limit swing trade potential. Entry near ₹310–₹315 may offer short-term opportunities, with exit near ₹340–₹345. Risk management is crucial due to premium valuation and earnings volatility.