RVNL - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:55 pm

Technical Rating: 2.8

📊 Chart Patterns: RVNL is trading below both its 50 DMA (322 ₹) and 200 DMA (352 ₹). Current price (319 ₹) indicates weakness, with the stock struggling to maintain momentum after a steep decline from its 52-week high (502 ₹). The broader pattern shows lower highs and lower lows, suggesting bearish bias.

📈 Moving Averages: Price < 50 DMA and < 200 DMA → bearish alignment, signaling short-term and medium-term weakness.

📉 RSI: 36.6 → near oversold territory, suggesting potential rebound if support holds.

📉 MACD: -4.31 → bearish crossover, confirming negative momentum.

📊 Bollinger Bands: Price near lower band, indicating oversold conditions but also risk of further downside.

📊 Volume Trends: Current volume (23,13,584) is higher than 1-week average (19,68,466) → selling pressure is strong, showing distribution rather than accumulation.

📍 Support Levels: 310 ₹, 295 ₹ (recent low), and 280 ₹.

📍 Resistance Levels: 322 ₹ (DMA 50), 352 ₹ (DMA 200), and 370 ₹.

🔎 Trend: The stock is reversing downward with bearish signals. A breakdown below 310 ₹ could trigger further decline, while a rebound above 322–352 ₹ may signal short-term recovery.

Positive

• 📈 EPS at 4.76 ₹ supports valuation strength.
• 📊 ROCE (15.0%) and ROE (14.4%) show decent capital efficiency.
• 📊 DII holdings slightly increased (+0.01%), showing marginal domestic investor support.
• 💰 Dividend yield of 0.56% provides modest income for investors.

Limitation

• ⚠️ Price trading below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA → bearish technical setup.
• ⚠️ High P/E ratio (67.1) compared to industry PE (18.8) → valuation premium.
• ⚠️ PEG ratio (22.3) suggests expensive growth expectations.
• ⚠️ RSI near oversold but momentum remains weak.

Company Negative News

• 📉 FII holdings declined (-0.23%), showing reduced foreign investor confidence.
• 📉 Quarterly PAT fell from 200 Cr. to 196 Cr. (-35.2% YoY variation).
• 📉 Stock trading near lower end of 52-week range (11.6%).

Company Positive News

• 📈 Sequential PAT growth from 128 Cr. to 196 Cr. shows short-term improvement.
• 📊 Strong dividend yield and moderate leverage (Debt-to-equity 0.56).

Industry

• 🏗️ Infrastructure and railway sector PE at 18.8, much lower than RVNL’s PE (67.1), suggesting overvaluation relative to peers.
• 📊 Industry supported by government-led infrastructure expansion and railway modernization projects.

Conclusion

🔎 RVNL is showing bearish reversal signals with price below key moving averages, weak RSI, and negative MACD. Optimal entry zone lies near 310–315 ₹ if support holds, while exit/resistance zone is 352–370 ₹. Long-term investors should be cautious due to high valuation and weak profitability trends, while short-term traders may look for opportunities only on confirmed rebound above 322–352 ₹.