NATIONALUM - Investment Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Investment Rating: 4.6

🧪 Fundamental Analysis: National Aluminium Company Ltd. (NATIONALUM)

National Aluminium stands out as a high-quality PSU metal stock with deep value characteristics, excellent capital efficiency, and strong dividend payouts. It’s well-positioned for long-term investors seeking both income and cyclical upside.

Metric Value Implication

P/E Ratio 6.62 Deeply undervalued vs. industry PE of 17.7 — strong value indicator

PEG Ratio 0.31 Very attractive — growth is significantly underpriced

ROE / ROCE 32.7% / 44.0% Exceptional — top-tier capital efficiency

Dividend Yield 4.22% High — excellent for income-focused investors

Debt-to-Equity 0.01 Virtually debt-free — superb financial health

EPS ₹28.7 Strong — supports valuation and dividend payouts

Profit Growth (QoQ) +203% Outstanding — cyclical surge, but sustainability should be monitored

📉 Technical & Trend Analysis

Current Price: ₹190

DMA 50 / DMA 200: ₹187 / ₹186 — trading above both, short-term bullish

RSI: 49.1 — neutral zone, room for upside

MACD: +1.56 — positive momentum

Volume: Slightly below average — steady accumulation

✅ Long-Term Investment Potential

Yes — highly attractive. NATIONALUM offers a rare combination of deep value, strong profitability, and high dividends. While it’s exposed to commodity cycles, its financial strength and earnings power make it a resilient long-term play.

🎯 Ideal Entry Price Zone

Buy Zone: ₹180–₹190

Near DMA support and current consolidation range

Accumulate gradually if PEG stays below 0.5 and ROE remains above 30%

Avoid chasing above ₹210 unless metal prices and earnings momentum continue

🧭 Exit Strategy & Holding Period

If you're already holding

Holding Period: 2–4 years — to benefit from commodity cycles and dividend compounding

Exit Strategy

Partial Exit near ₹255–₹260 if P/E exceeds 12 and PEG rises above 1

Hold if ROCE remains >35% and dividend yield stays above 4%

Reassess if global aluminium prices weaken or PAT growth reverses sharply

Would you like a dividend-focused comparison with other metal PSUs like Hindustan Copper, MOIL, or Coal India to build a resource-sector income portfolio?

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