MGL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals
Back to ListSwing Trade Rating: 3.4
| Stock Code | MGL | Market Cap | 9,874 Cr. | Current Price | 1,000 ₹ | High / Low | 1,587 ₹ |
| Stock P/E | 10.2 | Book Value | 629 ₹ | Dividend Yield | 3.00 % | ROCE | 22.9 % |
| ROE | 17.7 % | Face Value | 10.0 ₹ | DMA 50 | 1,100 ₹ | DMA 200 | 1,210 ₹ |
| Chg in FII Hold | 1.30 % | Chg in DII Hold | -2.06 % | PAT Qtr | 202 Cr. | PAT Prev Qtr | 193 Cr. |
| RSI | 31.6 | MACD | -32.1 | Volume | 8,29,730 | Avg Vol 1Wk | 5,48,851 |
| Low price | 988 ₹ | High price | 1,587 ₹ | PEG Ratio | 0.57 | Debt to equity | 0.03 |
| 52w Index | 2.00 % | Qtr Profit Var | -10.4 % | EPS | 97.9 ₹ | Industry PE | 14.4 |
📊 MGL shows strong fundamentals but weak technicals for swing trading. The RSI at 31.6 indicates oversold conditions, suggesting a possible rebound. However, the MACD (-32.1) reflects bearish momentum, and the stock is trading below both 50 DMA (1,100 ₹) and 200 DMA (1,210 ₹), showing short-term weakness. With a low P/E of 10.2 compared to the industry average of 14.4, the stock appears undervalued. Overall, this is a moderately good swing trade candidate with cautious entry.
💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 990–1,010 ₹ (near recent support and oversold zone).
📈 Exit Strategy (if already holding): Consider exiting near 1,100–1,120 ₹ (DMA resistance zone) unless momentum improves further.
✅ Positive
- Quarterly PAT improved (202 Cr. vs 193 Cr.).
- EPS of 97.9 ₹ reflects strong earnings power.
- ROCE (22.9%) and ROE (17.7%) are healthy, showing efficient capital use.
- Dividend yield of 3.00% adds investor appeal.
- PEG ratio of 0.57 suggests undervaluation relative to growth.
- Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03 indicates negligible leverage.
⚠️ Limitation
- Stock trading below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA.
- Bearish technical indicators (MACD negative, RSI oversold).
- DII holdings decreased (-2.06%), reflecting weaker domestic support.
- Quarterly profit variation (-10.4%) shows short-term weakness.
📉 Company Negative News
- DII stake reduced significantly (-2.06%).
- Stock has dropped sharply from 52-week high (1,587 ₹ to 1,000 ₹).
📈 Company Positive News
- Sequential PAT growth despite industry challenges.
- FII holdings increased (+1.30%), showing foreign investor confidence.
- Strong fundamentals compared to peers.
🏭 Industry
- Industry PE is 14.4, slightly higher than MGL’s 10.2, suggesting undervaluation compared to peers.
- City gas distribution sector benefits from long-term demand growth but is sensitive to regulatory changes.
🔎 Conclusion
MGL is a moderately good swing trade candidate with strong fundamentals and undervaluation compared to peers. Entry near 990–1,010 ₹ offers a favorable risk-reward setup, while exits near 1,100–1,120 ₹ capture upside potential. Weak technicals and declining domestic investor confidence warrant caution, but strong earnings and dividend yield make this suitable for tactical short-term trades.