MFSL - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.6

📊 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Current Price (₹1,505) is slightly below 50 DMA (₹1,513) but well above 200 DMA (₹1,297) — short-term weakness, long-term support intact.

RSI (36.6) — approaching oversold zone, but not yet signaling reversal.

MACD (-8.70) — bearish momentum, caution warranted.

Volume Surge: Current volume nearly double 1-week average — could indicate selling pressure or speculative interest.

📈 Fundamental Overview

Valuation

P/E (157) vs Industry P/E (73.9) — extremely overvalued.

PEG Ratio (17.1) — poor value relative to growth.

Profitability

ROCE (8.07%) and ROE (7.22%) — weak efficiency metrics.

EPS (₹9.48) — low earnings base for current valuation.

Quarterly Performance

PAT Qtr: ₹32.9 Cr vs Prev Qtr: ₹56.2 Cr — sharp decline despite Qtr Profit Var: +175%, which may reflect a one-off adjustment.

Dividend Yield (0%) — no income cushion.

Debt-to-Equity (0.19) — low leverage, but not enough to offset valuation concerns.

FII/DII Holding: Flat to slightly negative — no strong institutional conviction.

✅ Swing Trade Strategy

Optimal Entry Price: ₹1,470–₹1,490 (closer to support and oversold RSI).

Target Exit Price: ₹1,580–₹1,600 (short-term resistance zone).

Stop Loss: ₹1,440 (below recent support and psychological level).

🧭 If You Already Hold the Stock

Exit on any bounce toward ₹1,580–₹1,600 unless fundamentals improve.

Cut losses if price breaks below ₹1,440 with volume confirmation.

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