MARICO - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.5

📊 Marico shows strong fundamentals but faces valuation concerns and profit decline, making it a moderate candidate for swing trading. The stock is trading above both its 50 DMA (727 ₹) and 200 DMA (705 ₹), confirming bullish strength. RSI at 59.4 indicates healthy momentum without being overbought, and MACD is positive (2.94), supporting upward trend continuation. Optimal entry would be near 720–730 ₹ on pullbacks. If already holding, exit should be considered near 760–765 ₹, close to resistance levels.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Strong ROCE (42.8%) and ROE (36.5%) highlight excellent capital efficiency.
• 💰 Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.04) indicates financial stability.
• 📊 Dividend yield of 1.43% provides steady income.
• 📉 Trading above DMA 50 and DMA 200 confirms bullish technical trend.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 High P/E ratio (51.0) compared to industry PE (26.3), showing overvaluation.
• 📊 PEG ratio of 5.40 suggests poor valuation relative to growth.
• 📉 Quarterly PAT dropped from 777 Cr. to 399 Cr., showing earnings decline (-24.6%).
• 📊 DII holdings decreased (-0.73%), showing reduced domestic institutional confidence.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Decline in quarterly profits raises concerns about earnings consistency.
• 📉 Overvaluation compared to peers may limit upside potential.

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 Increase in FII holdings (+0.59%) reflects growing foreign investor interest.
• 💰 Strong fundamentals with high efficiency ratios and low debt.

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry PE at 26.3 vs. Marico’s PE of 51.0 indicates significant overvaluation compared to peers.
• 🛒 FMCG sector remains defensive, benefiting from steady demand but facing margin pressures.

📌 Conclusion

Overall, Marico is a moderate swing trade candidate with strong fundamentals but valuation concerns and profit decline. Entry around 720–730 ₹ is optimal, while exit should be considered near 760–765 ₹. Traders should monitor earnings performance and institutional sentiment closely to manage risk effectively.

I can also prepare a peer comparison with FMCG stocks like HUL or Dabur to highlight Marico’s relative swing trade potential. Would you like me to set that up?