KEC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 3.4

⚡ Swing Trade Analysis: KEC International Ltd.

KEC shows signs of technical recovery and institutional interest, but weak earnings and stretched valuation make it a cautious swing trade candidate.

✅ Strengths

Technical Setup: Price ₹874 is above both 50-DMA (₹850) and 200-DMA (₹849), suggesting a short-term bullish crossover.

MACD (11.8): Positive — indicates upward momentum.

RSI (57.3): Neutral to mildly bullish — room for upside before overbought territory.

FII Sentiment: Increased holdings (+0.60%) — a positive signal.

Volume: Near weekly average — confirms steady interest.

Dividend Yield: 0.63% — adds holding incentive.

⚠️ Weaknesses

Valuation: P/E of 70.8 is significantly above industry average (20.6), and PEG ratio of -4.57 suggests poor growth-adjusted pricing.

Profitability: ROE (7.00%) is weak, and ROCE (14.6%) is moderate.

Earnings Decline: PAT dropped sharply from ₹161 Cr to ₹36.8 Cr — a major red flag.

DII Sentiment: Declined (-1.63%) — bearish institutional signal.

52w Index (38.0%): Trading in lower third of yearly range — sentiment remains subdued.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Buy Zone: ₹850–₹860

Near 50-DMA support; wait for RSI to rise above 60 and MACD to remain positive.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Holding)

Target Exit: ₹910–₹940

Near short-term resistance; exit if RSI crosses 70 or MACD flattens.

Stop Loss: ₹825

Below this level, trend support breaks.

⚖️ Verdict

KEC is a moderate swing trade candidate, suitable for short-term technical plays. Entry near support and disciplined exit near resistance can work, but weak earnings and valuation demand tight risk control.

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