KEC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.4

📉 KEC International shows oversold technicals and decent volume, but weak earnings and high valuation limit short-term upside.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price: ₹795–₹805

🚪 Exit Target (if already holding): ₹840–₹860

🔍 Positive

• 📈 Volume above weekly average (4.16L vs 2.99L), indicating rising interest.
• 📉 RSI at 30.1 suggests oversold territory, ideal for potential bounce trades.
• 📈 Price near 200 DMA (₹849), offering technical resistance for swing exit.
• 📈 EPS of ₹12.3 supports earnings visibility.
• 📈 Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.65 is manageable for an EPC company.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 P/E of 65.5 is nearly 3x the industry average (22.2), suggesting overvaluation.
• 📉 MACD at -11.0 confirms bearish momentum.
• 📉 ROE of 7.00% and ROCE of 14.6% are modest for capital-intensive businesses.
• 📉 PEG ratio of -4.23 implies poor growth-adjusted valuation.
• 📉 Price below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA (₹846 and ₹849), showing technical weakness.

📉 Company Negative News

• 📉 PAT dropped sharply from ₹161 Cr to ₹36.8 Cr QoQ, indicating margin pressure or project delays.
• 📉 FII and DII holdings declined slightly, showing cautious institutional sentiment.

📈 Company Positive News

• 📈 EPS remains stable despite profit drop, suggesting potential for recovery.
• 📈 Company continues to benefit from infrastructure and transmission project pipeline.

🏗️ Industry

• 🏗️ EPC and infrastructure sector benefits from government capex and urban development initiatives.
• 📉 Risks include execution delays, regulatory hurdles, and input cost inflation.

✅ Conclusion

• 📉 KEC International is a cautious swing trade candidate with oversold technicals and potential for short-term bounce.
• 🎯 Entry near ₹795–₹805 with exit around ₹840–₹860 is recommended for short-term traders.
• 📊 Long-term investors should monitor margin recovery and order book execution for sustained upside.

I can also compare KEC with peers like Kalpataru Projects or Techno Electric to help you identify stronger swing setups in the EPC space.