KALYANKJIL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 3.3

💍 Swing Trade Analysis: KALYANKJIL (Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd.)

Kalyan Jewellers shows a mix of strong earnings growth and solid fundamentals, but technical weakness and valuation concerns make it a cautious swing trade candidate.

✅ Strengths

Earnings Growth: PAT rose from ₹185 Cr to ₹256 Cr — strong quarterly momentum (Qtr Profit Var: 55.4%).

Profitability: ROCE (15.7%) and ROE (15.5%) are solid — efficient capital deployment.

DII Sentiment: Increased holdings (+1.37%) — institutional support.

Debt-to-Equity: Moderate at 0.69 — acceptable for a retail-heavy business.

⚠️ Weaknesses

Technical Setup: Price ₹515 is below both 50-DMA (₹531) and 200-DMA (₹543), indicating bearish pressure.

MACD (-8.18): Negative — confirms weak momentum.

RSI (47.5): Neutral to weak — no clear directional bias.

Volume: Below weekly average — reduced short-term interest.

Valuation: P/E of 68.2 is significantly above industry average (28.8), and PEG ratio of 1.42 suggests overvaluation.

FII Sentiment: Slight decline (-0.06%) — mildly bearish.

52w Index (29.2%): Trading near lower third of yearly range — sentiment remains subdued.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Buy Zone: ₹500–₹510

Near recent support; wait for MACD to flatten and RSI to rise above 50 before entering.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Holding)

Target Exit: ₹560–₹580

Near 200-DMA resistance; exit if RSI approaches 65 or MACD turns positive.

Stop Loss: ₹485

Below this level, downside risk accelerates.

⚖️ Verdict

KALYANKJIL is a moderate swing trade candidate, best suited for traders who can time a technical reversal. Strong earnings support the setup, but momentum indicators and valuation require caution.

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