KALYANKJIL - Investment Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

📊 Investment Analysis: Kalyan Jewellers Ltd. (₹604)

Investment Rating: 3.4

This stock reflects the duality of the retail jewelry space—moderate financial strength and strong brand recall, but with headwinds on valuation and leverage. Let’s dive in

💎 Fundamental Insights

ROCE: 14.3%, ROE: 15.9%

🟢 Reasonable efficiency, though not exceptional for a high-growth narrative.

Debt-to-Equity: 1.03

⚠️ Elevated leverage — manageable for retail inventory-heavy businesses, but worth monitoring.

PEG Ratio: 1.85

❌ Suggests overvaluation compared to growth expectations — limits upside potential at current price.

EPS: ₹6.93, P/E: 87.2 vs Industry PE: 30.5

Richly valued, signals high growth priced in — further upside demands strong earnings acceleration.

Dividend Yield: 0.20%

Minimal passive income — primarily a growth-oriented play.

📉 Technical & Sentiment Picture

DMA 50: ₹567, DMA 200: ₹551

Price is above both — momentum positive but nearing short-term fatigue.

RSI: 61.8, MACD: 13.0

Signals nearing overbought zone — suggests possible pullback or consolidation.

Volume: Slightly below weekly average

Mild drop in trading interest — ideal time to wait for trend confirmation.

FII Holding ▼ 0.06%, DII Holding ▲ 1.37%

Domestic players are bullish, but foreign investors cautious.

PAT Q/Q: ▼ 14%

Drop from ₹219 Cr to ₹188 Cr — may be seasonal, but needs consistent recovery to sustain valuation.

🎯 Ideal Entry Price Zone

Target Range: ₹535–₹565

Aligns with technical support levels and improves risk-reward profile.

Prefer entry on MACD flattening and RSI correction toward 45–50 zone.

🛣️ Exit Strategy / Holding Period

If you're already holding

Holding Horizon: Medium-term (1.5–2.5 years), ideally aligned with festive cycles and store expansion pace.

Exit Range: ₹725–₹770

Matches previous highs — consider booking profits if price action stalls or valuation inflates without earnings support.

Reassessment Flags

PEG consistently >2

ROE drops below 12%

Debt-to-equity crosses 1.25

Consecutive quarters of declining PAT or flat EPS

📌 Verdict

Kalyan Jewellers is a brand-led retail investment—its valuation is rich and growth priced in, but if expansion continues and debt moderates, it can deliver steady medium-term returns. Entering on dips with earnings momentum intact could offer better long-term outcomes.

Would you like a comparative matrix with Titan or Senco to sharpen portfolio decisions in the jewelry segment? I'm happy to chart that up.

Edit in a page