HFCL - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.2

HFCL appears deeply discounted and potentially attractive for long-term value recovery, but the current technical and earnings signals don’t favor a swing trade. Momentum indicators remain weak, fundamentals are strained, and the stock has broken down significantly from its highs.

📊 Fundamental Snapshot

Valuation Pressure

P/E: 323 → Severely overvalued considering industry PE of 22.2

PEG Ratio: -17.6 → Negative growth outlook, valuation mismatch

Profitability

EPS: ₹0.23 | PAT Qtr: -₹29.3 Cr → Loss-making and inconsistent

Qtr Profit Variation: -126% → Volatility risk

Return Metrics

ROE: 4.31% | ROCE: 7.67% → Weak return ratios

Debt Position

Debt-to-Equity: 0.33 → Balanced leverage

Institutional Changes

FII & DII increased holdings → Small vote of confidence despite challenges

📉 Technical Trends

Price Action

Current Price: ₹78.7 — Below DMA 50 (₹83.2) and DMA 200 (₹93.6)

52w Index: 7.21% → Huge drawdown from ₹171 high

Momentum

RSI: 39.6 → Weak sentiment

MACD: -1.85 → Bearish divergence

Volume Profile

Current: 1.11 Cr vs Avg: 1.2 Cr → Slight tapering in interest

🎯 Swing Strategy

📥 Entry Range

Wait Zone: ₹73–₹76 Look for stability near support and RSI crossing back above 45 for swing confirmation.

📤 Exit Strategy

Target Price: ₹86–₹90 Modest upside until resistance at DMA levels

Stop-Loss: ₹71.5 Just below recent low to limit drawdown

✋ If Already Holding

Watch closely for exit between ₹86–₹90 on rebound

Tight stop around ₹74 if recovery falters

Exit if RSI falls below 35 or price re-tests recent lows

Would you prefer identifying turnaround stories with improving quarterly performance, or screen for high-momentum small-caps with clean breakouts? I’m ready to dig in.

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