HFCL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 2.8

📊 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Trend Setup: Price is slightly above 50 DMA (₹75.3) but still below 200 DMA (₹87.4), indicating a weak-to-neutral trend.

MACD Flat: At 0.11, MACD shows minimal momentum—no strong bullish signal yet.

RSI Elevated: 61.6 suggests mild strength, but not yet overbought.

Volume Spike: Current volume (9.62 Cr) is more than double the 1-week average (4.36 Cr), indicating speculative interest or short-term accumulation.

📉 Fundamental Snapshot

Valuation Extremely Stretched: P/E of 291 and PEG of −24.9 are red flags—pricing is disconnected from earnings.

Weak Profitability: ROCE 7.9%, ROE 5.0%—below swing-grade thresholds.

Negative Earnings: PAT remains negative (₹−42.3 Cr), with Qtr Profit Var at −137%—unsuitable for momentum-based setups.

Moderate Leverage: Debt-to-equity of 0.32 is manageable.

Institutional Sentiment: FII and DII both increased holdings (+0.78%)—a rare positive amid weak fundamentals.

🧠 Market Sentiment

Recent coverage suggests HFCL is attracting speculative interest due to high volume and short-term price recovery

1

. However, long-term performance remains poor, with EPS shrinking and revenue declining

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. The stock is trading at just 8.86% of its 52-week high, indicating deep drawdown and limited swing reliability.

🎯 Trade Strategy

🔹 Optimal Entry Price

₹74–₹76: Near 50 DMA and short-term support zone. Entry only if MACD turns positive and RSI holds above 60 with volume confirmation.

🔹 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

₹85–₹88: Near 200 DMA and first resistance zone. Exit if RSI crosses 70 or MACD flattens.

Extended Target: ₹95–₹100 only if momentum accelerates with strong volume.

Trailing Stop: ₹72 to protect downside.

🧠 Summary

HFCL offers a speculative swing setup with high volume and short-term recovery, but fundamentals are weak and valuation is extreme. Best suited for tactical trades with tight risk control. Entry near ₹75 with confirmation may offer a short-term bounce, but exit near ₹88 is prudent unless momentum strengthens.

If you’d prefer a filtered basket with PEG < 1, ROCE > 15%, and MACD > 5 for higher-conviction swing setups, I can prep one tailored to your workflow.

1

www.angelone.in

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simplywall.st

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