HFCL - IntraDay Trade Analysis with Live Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:02 am

IntraDay Trade Rating: 3.2

📊 Analysis: HFCL shows weak-to-moderate intraday potential. RSI at 31.4 indicates oversold conditions, while MACD at -2.36 reflects bearish sentiment. Current price (64.2 ₹) is below both 50 DMA (71.4 ₹) and 200 DMA (80.6 ₹), showing technical weakness. Volume (1.09 Cr.) is slightly above average weekly volume (1.01 Cr.), suggesting active participation but mostly on the sell side. Fundamentals are weak with ROCE 7.9%, ROE 5.0%, and extremely high P/E (370 vs industry PE 18). Quarterly PAT recovery from -42.3 Cr. to 61.4 Cr. is positive, but profit variation (-18%) shows inconsistency.

💹 Optimal Buy Price: 63–64 ₹ (near intraday support).

🎯 Profit-Taking Exit Levels: 67–69 ₹ (short-term resistance zone).

🛡️ Stop-Loss / Loss Protection: 61 ₹ (below intraday support).

⏱️ If Already Holding: Exit intraday if price fails to sustain above 67 ₹ with volume confirmation, or if RSI dips below 30 with continued negative MACD. Hold only if momentum continues above 69 ₹, targeting 72–74 ₹.

Positive

• ✅ Quarterly PAT recovery from losses (-42.3 Cr.) to profit (61.4 Cr.).
• ✅ Volume above average indicates active participation in the current session.
• ✅ Book value (27.7 ₹) provides some margin of safety.

Limitation

• ⚠️ RSI at 31.4 and negative MACD (-2.36) indicate bearish momentum.
• ⚠️ Price below 50 DMA and 200 DMA shows technical weakness.
• ⚠️ Extremely high P/E (370) compared to industry PE (18) indicates severe overvaluation.
• ⚠️ ROCE (7.9%) and ROE (5.0%) are weak fundamentals.
• ⚠️ FII (-0.27%) and DII (-0.47%) outflows show reduced institutional confidence.
• ⚠️ PEG ratio (-31.7) suggests poor growth visibility.

Company Negative News

• ❌ No major external negative news reported, but profit decline and valuation risks are concerns.

Company Positive News

• 🌟 PAT turnaround from losses to profit in the latest quarter.
• 🌟 Strong trading activity supports intraday opportunities.

Industry

• 🏭 Industry PE at 18.0 is far below HFCL’s PE (370), highlighting valuation mismatch.
• 🏭 Telecom and networking sector outlook remains competitive but pressured by margins.

Conclusion

📌 HFCL is a weak-to-moderate candidate for intraday trading with oversold RSI and recent PAT recovery. However, stretched valuation, weak fundamentals, and price below DMA levels limit conviction. Suitable only for cautious intraday traders with tight stop-loss discipline, aiming for defensive scalps near support-resistance zones rather than aggressive intraday runs.

Would you like me to extend this into a peer benchmarking overlay against other telecom and networking equipment stocks (like Tejas Networks, Sterlite Tech, ITI Ltd) to compare intraday strength and sector rotation opportunities?