HFCL - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:54 pm

Technical Rating: 2.9

📊 Chart Patterns: HFCL is trading below both its 50 DMA (71.4 ₹) and 200 DMA (80.6 ₹), reflecting a bearish structure. The price is hovering near its 52-week low (63.5 ₹), suggesting weak sentiment and strong downward pressure.

📈 Moving Averages:

- 50 DMA: 71.4 ₹ (resistance)

- 200 DMA: 80.6 ₹ (major resistance)

The stock remains under both averages, confirming a downtrend.

📉 RSI: 31.4 → Near oversold territory, indicating weak momentum but potential for a short-term bounce.

📉 MACD: -2.36 → Bearish crossover, confirming downward momentum.

📊 Bollinger Bands: Price near lower band, suggesting oversold conditions and possible mean reversion.

📊 Volume Trends: Current volume (1.09 Cr) is slightly higher than 1-week average (1.01 Cr), showing increased activity, possibly due to accumulation near support.

🎯 Momentum Signals:

- Short-term bias: Bearish with oversold signals

- Entry Zone: 63–65 ₹ (near support levels)

- Exit Zone: 70–75 ₹ (near 50 DMA resistance)

- Breakout potential above 80 ₹ could target 90–95 ₹.

📌 Trend Status: The stock is in a corrective phase with bearish undertone. Consolidation possible if support near 63 ₹ holds.

Positive

• Quarterly PAT recovery (61.4 Cr vs -42.3 Cr) shows operational turnaround.
• Volume activity above average suggests investor interest near support levels.
• Book value of 27.7 ₹ provides some fundamental backing.

Limitation

• Stock P/E (370) is extremely high compared to industry PE (18.0), indicating severe overvaluation.
• RSI and MACD confirm bearish momentum.
• Quarterly profit variation (-18.0%) highlights earnings pressure.
• ROCE (7.90%) and ROE (5.00%) are modest, showing weak efficiency.

Company Negative News

• FII holdings decreased (-0.27%) and DII holdings decreased (-0.47%), showing reduced institutional confidence.

Company Positive News

• Quarterly PAT turned positive after a loss in the previous quarter, showing recovery signs.

Industry

• Industry PE: 18.0, far lower than HFCL’s PE of 370, suggesting extreme overvaluation.
• Telecom and networking sector remains cyclical, influenced by infrastructure demand and government projects.

Conclusion

⚖️ HFCL is in a bearish corrective phase with weak short-term signals but some recovery in profitability. Entry near 63–65 ₹ offers accumulation opportunity for risk-tolerant investors, while resistance lies at 70–75 ₹. A breakout above 80 ₹ could extend momentum towards 90–95 ₹. Investors should remain cautious due to high valuations and weak efficiency metrics, while traders may attempt short-term plays near support zones with strict stop-loss near 62 ₹.