GUJGASLTD - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 3.5

📊 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Trend Setup: Price is hovering around the 50 DMA (₹441) and below the 200 DMA (₹464), indicating a neutral-to-weak trend.

MACD Slightly Negative: At −0.23, MACD suggests momentum is soft and lacks a clear bullish crossover.

RSI Neutral: 51.4 indicates consolidation—neither oversold nor overbought.

Volume Weak: Current volume (1.25L) is nearly half of the 1-week average (2.47L), showing reduced trader interest.

📈 Fundamental Snapshot

Valuation Reasonable: P/E of 26.4 vs industry average of 20.2 is slightly premium, but not excessive.

Strong Efficiency: ROCE 19.6%, ROE 14.3%—solid capital deployment.

Low Leverage: Debt-to-equity of 0.02 adds financial resilience.

Profit Stability: PAT grew marginally from ₹287 Cr to ₹327 Cr, but Qtr Profit Var is −0.91%—flat earnings.

Institutional Sentiment: FII slightly reduced (−0.11%), DII increased (+0.19%)—neutral to mildly bullish.

🧠 Analyst Sentiment

According to recent analysis, GUJGASLTD is currently in a short-term downtrend, with a price target range of ₹377.7 on the downside and ₹543.1 on the upside for 2025. The delivery percentage is high (~70.6%), indicating long-term investor confidence despite short-term weakness.

🎯 Trade Strategy

🔹 Optimal Entry Price

₹420–₹430: Near recent support and below 50 DMA. Entry only if MACD flattens and RSI crosses 55 with volume pickup.

🔹 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

₹520–₹543: First resistance zone aligned with short-term upside target. Exit if RSI crosses 70 or MACD turns flat.

Trailing Stop: ₹412 to protect downside.

🧠 Summary

GUJGASLTD offers a value-backed swing setup with strong ROCE, low debt, and stable earnings. While technical momentum is weak, the fundamentals and delivery strength support a cautious entry near support. Best suited for bounce trades with confirmation signals.

Want me to prep a filtered basket with PEG < 1, ROCE > 15%, and MACD > 5 for tighter swing setups?

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