GRASIM - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.2

📈 Analysis: GRASIM presents a mixed swing trade opportunity with neutral technicals and weak fundamentals. The current price of ₹2,881 is slightly above the 50 DMA (₹2,832) and 200 DMA (₹2,714), suggesting a mild uptrend. RSI at 53.9 and MACD at 28.5 indicate moderate momentum. However, the fundamentals are concerning — extremely high P/E (661), negative PAT, and very low ROCE (1.52%) and ROE (0.35%). The PEG ratio of -11.0 further reflects poor growth valuation. Institutional sentiment is split, with FII holdings increasing and DII holdings declining.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price: ₹2,820–₹2,850 (on pullback near 50 DMA)

🚪 Exit Strategy (if holding): Consider exiting near ₹2,950–₹2,975 (recent high zone) or if RSI crosses 65 with MACD flattening.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Price above 50 & 200 DMA — mild bullish trend
• 📈 FII holding increased (+0.58%) — foreign investor confidence
• 📉 PAT improved from -₹174 Cr. to -₹118 Cr. — narrowing losses
• 💸 Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.22) — manageable leverage

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Extremely high P/E (661) — severe overvaluation
• 📉 PEG ratio of -11.0 — poor growth valuation
• 📉 ROCE (1.52%) and ROE (0.35%) — weak capital efficiency
• 📉 DII holding decreased (-0.64%) — domestic investor caution
• 📉 Volume below average — reduced trading interest

📰 Company Negative News

• Continued quarterly losses and weak return ratios raise concerns about profitability and efficiency

🌟 Company Positive News

• Losses have narrowed sequentially, and FII interest has grown, indicating cautious optimism

🏭 Industry

• Industry P/E is 36.4 — GRASIM trades at a steep premium, reflecting speculative valuation
• Conglomerate and manufacturing sectors are cyclical and sensitive to macroeconomic trends and capex cycles

🧾 Conclusion

GRASIM is a technically neutral but fundamentally weak swing trade candidate. Entry near support may offer a short-term opportunity, but exit near resistance or on RSI/MACD reversal is advisable due to valuation and earnings concerns.

I can also help you compare GRASIM’s setup with peers like UltraTech Cement or Hindalco to refine your swing strategy.