GPIL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 4.2

📊 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Strong Uptrend: Price is well above both 50 DMA (₹223) and 200 DMA (₹199), confirming bullish momentum.

MACD Positive: At 13.5, MACD signals continued strength.

RSI Elevated: 67.7 suggests the stock is nearing overbought territory—momentum is strong but caution is warranted.

Volume Surge: Current volume (44.6L) is robust, though below the 1-week average (138.4L), indicating sustained interest but not euphoric buying.

📈 Fundamental Snapshot

Valuation Fair: P/E of 25.0 vs industry average of 24.0 is reasonable; however, PEG of −1.61 reflects earnings contraction or forecast uncertainty.

Strong Efficiency: ROCE 23.4%, ROE 17.1%—solid capital deployment.

Low Leverage: Debt-to-equity of 0.06 adds financial resilience.

Profit Dip: PAT declined slightly from ₹204 Cr to ₹200 Cr (−27.0% Qtr Var), but still stable in absolute terms.

Institutional Sentiment: FII marginally reduced (−0.07%), DII increased (+0.24%)—net neutral to mildly bullish.

🎯 Trade Strategy

🔹 Optimal Entry Price

₹240–₹245: Ideal pullback zone near 21-DMA and below 50 DMA. Entry only if RSI cools below 60 and MACD remains positive.

🔹 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

₹272–₹276: Near 52-week high and resistance zone. Exit if RSI crosses 72 or MACD flattens.

Trailing Stop: ₹248 to protect gains.

🧠 Summary

GPIL (Godawari Power & Ispat) presents a high-conviction swing setup—technicals are strong, fundamentals are solid, and valuation is reasonable. While PEG is negative, the momentum and ROCE support a short-term trade. Entry on a mild dip offers better risk-reward, while exit near highs is prudent unless volume and MACD accelerate further.

For tighter setups, I can prep a filtered basket with MACD > 10, ROCE > 20%, and PEG < 1.5—ready when you are.

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