GPIL - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 4.0

GPIL presents a compelling risk-reward setup for a swing trade — backed by strong fundamentals, mild bullish momentum, and a relatively discounted price versus its 52-week high. While the PEG ratio is negative (suggesting volatility in growth expectations), technicals and financial metrics make it worth tracking.

📊 Fundamental Overview

Valuation

P/E: 16.0 vs Industry PE: 23.8 → Undervalued relative to peers

PEG Ratio: -0.97 → Negative may imply weak growth visibility or erratic earnings patterns

EPS: ₹12.1, Book Value: ₹73.3 → Favorable intrinsic worth

Profitability

ROCE: 23.3%, ROE: 17.3% → Strong capital efficiency

PAT Qtr: ₹221 Cr. vs ₹145 Cr. → Positive growth trend

Balance Sheet & Yield

Debt-to-equity: 0.06 → Minimal leverage

Dividend Yield: 0.52% → Bonus for long-term holders

📈 Technical Picture

Current Price: ₹194

Above key moving averages

DMA 50: ₹188

DMA 200: ₹187 → Stable bullish bias

Momentum

RSI: 58.7 → Healthy zone, not overheated

MACD: 1.61 → Mild upward crossover, trend building

Volume: 10.91L vs Avg 8.29L → Stronger trading interest

52W Index: 45.0% → Well below high of ₹254; potential upside remains

🎯 Swing Trade Strategy

✅ Optimal Entry Zone

Entry Price: ₹188–₹192 Entry near 50-DMA offers good risk-adjusted potential.

Keep an eye on volume spikes above ₹195 as confirmation of breakout momentum.

🚪 Exit Strategy

Target Price: ₹212–₹220 Moderate upside before testing supply zones near ₹230+

Stop-Loss: ₹180 Below 200-DMA and consolidation base for downside protection.

💼 If Already Holding

Price above ₹194 shows trend support.

Hold until ₹212–₹220 and begin partial booking — especially if RSI approaches 65+ and MACD flattens.

If price stagnates below ₹195 with volume tapering, consider locking gains early or shifting to a trailing stop near ₹190.

Would you like me to scout similar mid-cap industrial plays with strong ROCE and upward MACD curves? Could unlock more trading opportunities like this.

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