CRISIL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:00 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.2

📊 CRISIL shows moderate potential for swing trading. The stock is trading below both its 50 DMA (4,612 ₹) and 200 DMA (4,903 ₹), with RSI at 37.9 indicating oversold conditions. MACD is negative (-71.6), suggesting bearish momentum. Strong ROCE (39.0%) and ROE (36.5%) highlight excellent fundamentals, but high P/E of 48 compared to industry PE of 29.3 and declining quarterly profits limit upside. Optimal entry would be near 4,250–4,300 ₹. If already holding, consider exiting near 4,600–4,700 ₹ unless momentum strengthens.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Market cap of 32,018 Cr. ensures stability and liquidity.
• 💹 Strong ROCE (39.0%) and ROE (36.5%).
• 📊 EPS of 91.3 ₹ highlights strong earnings base.
• 📉 Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.12), showing financial strength.
• 📈 Dividend yield of 0.59% adds investor appeal.
• 📊 DII holdings increased (+0.11%), reflecting domestic investor confidence.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 High P/E of 48 compared to industry PE of 29.3.
• 📉 PEG ratio of 4.40, suggesting overvaluation relative to growth.
• 📉 RSI at 37.9 and MACD negative (-71.6) indicate weak momentum.
• 📉 Quarterly PAT declined to 137 Cr. from 194 Cr. (-31.7% variation).
• 📉 FII holdings decreased (-0.27%).

🚨 Company Negative News

No major fresh negative news reported, but declining quarterly profits, weak technicals, and reduced FII interest remain concerns.

🌟 Company Positive News

Strong ROCE/ROE and consistent dividend payouts highlight long-term investor confidence despite short-term weakness.

🏭 Industry

The financial services and rating industry trades at an average PE of 29.3. CRISIL’s valuation is significantly higher, reflecting premium positioning but also overvaluation risk.

📌 Conclusion

CRISIL is a fair swing trade candidate with strong fundamentals but weak technicals. Best entry near 4,250–4,300 ₹ (close to support levels). If already holding, exit near 4,600–4,700 ₹ unless momentum breaks resistance. Risk-reward is moderate, with caution advised due to high valuation and bearish indicators.

I can also prepare a peer comparison of CRISIL with ICRA and CARE Ratings to highlight relative swing trade opportunities in the credit rating sector.