CRISIL - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:54 pm

Technical Rating: 3.2

📈 Technical Analysis

• Chart Patterns: Stock is trading far below its 52-week high (6,955 ₹), showing weakness and correction from peak levels.
• Moving Averages: Current price (4,378 ₹) is below both 50 DMA (4,612 ₹) and 200 DMA (4,903 ₹), confirming bearish bias.
• RSI: At 37.9, RSI is weak and near oversold territory, suggesting limited buying strength but potential rebound.
• MACD: Strongly negative (-71.6), showing bearish momentum and trend continuation.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band, signaling weakness and possible short-term consolidation.
• Volume Trends: Current volume (1,42,341) is significantly higher than 1-week average (61,596), indicating strong participation but likely selling pressure.

🎯 Momentum & Trade Zones

• Support Levels: 4,300 ₹ (near-term support), 3,894 ₹ (52-week low).
• Resistance Levels: 4,612 ₹ (50 DMA), 4,900–5,000 ₹ (200 DMA zone).
• Entry Zone: 4,300–4,380 ₹ (near support, favorable risk-reward).
• Exit Zone: 4,600–4,900 ₹ (near resistance/top band).
• Trend Status: Reversing downward, currently weak with bearish signals but oversold conditions may trigger short-term bounce.

✅ Positive

• Strong ROCE (39.0%) and ROE (36.5%) indicate excellent capital efficiency.
• EPS of 91.3 ₹ highlights profitability and earnings strength.
• DII holdings increased (+0.11%), showing domestic institutional support.
• Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.12) ensures financial stability.

⚠️ Limitation

• Stock P/E (48.0) is higher than industry average (29.3), suggesting premium valuation.
• PEG ratio of 4.40 indicates stretched valuation relative to growth.
• Quarterly PAT declined sharply (137 Cr. vs 194 Cr.), showing earnings pressure (-31.7%).
• Stock trading at only 15.8% of its 52-week range, reflecting severe underperformance.

📉 Company Negative News

• FII holdings decreased (-0.27%), showing reduced foreign investor confidence.
• Quarterly profit fell significantly, reflecting operational challenges.

📊 Company Positive News

• DII stake increased, boosting investor sentiment.
• EPS of 91.3 ₹ highlights profitability despite recent earnings decline.
• Company maintains strong balance sheet with low debt.

🏭 Industry

• Industry P/E at 29.3, much lower than CRISIL’s valuation, suggesting premium pricing.
• Financial services and rating sector remains cyclical but supported by demand for credit analysis and advisory services.

📝 Conclusion

• CRISIL is in a bearish phase, trading below key moving averages with weak momentum.
• Fundamentals show strong efficiency metrics, but valuations are stretched and earnings have weakened.
• Optimal strategy: Accumulate cautiously near support (4,300–4,380 ₹) and book profits near resistance (4,600–4,900 ₹).
• Short-term outlook: Weak with possible rebound from oversold levels; long-term outlook depends on earnings recovery and valuation moderation.