CHENNPETRO - Fundamental Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

📊 Fundamental Analysis: Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd (CHENNPETRO) Fundamental Rating: 2.7

🧾 Core Financials Snapshot

Profit Volatility

PAT turned negative: ₹-40.1 Cr vs ₹470 Cr prior ➜ massive swing of -111%.

EPS: ₹-12.3 — reflects poor quarterly performance and net losses.

Returns

ROE: 2.51%, ROCE: 4.30% ➜ very weak return metrics for an asset-heavy energy company.

Balance Sheet

Debt-to-equity: 0.38 ➜ moderate—manageable leverage.

Dividend Yield: 0.71% ➜ token income distribution—likely defensive posture.

📉 Summary: Financial health appears fragile due to dramatic earnings erosion.

💸 Valuation Indicators

Metric Value Insights

P/E Ratio N/A Unavailable due to negative earnings

P/B Ratio ~1.28 (705 ₹ / 551 ₹) ➜ slightly above book value

PEG Ratio N/A Cannot be calculated with negative EPS

Industry PE 21.6 CHENNPETRO trading below sector average

🔍 Conclusion: The absence of meaningful valuation ratios reflects weak fundamentals, though P/B suggests limited downside risk near book value.

🛢️ Business Model & Market Position

Operates in refining and downstream oil — highly cyclical, margin-sensitive sector.

Susceptible to global crude fluctuations, inventory losses, and policy actions.

Competitive advantage in location and infrastructure; however, large swings in profits suggest operational volatility.

📉 FII holdings down by 1.80% ➜ likely driven by recent performance concerns. 📈 DII holding up 0.24% ➜ minor domestic accumulation, possibly value-based.

📉 Technical Indicators

RSI: 46.4 ➜ neutral — no extreme momentum present.

MACD: +11.7 ➜ mild bullish signal; price may attempt a recovery.

Price hovers near 50 DMA (₹699) & above 200 DMA (₹676) ➜ early signs of technical support.

✅ Suggested Entry Zone: ₹660–₹690 🧠 Cautious accumulation only if signs of earnings recovery or sector tailwinds emerge.

📅 Long-Term Outlook

⚠️ Avoid aggressive exposure until

Operational performance stabilizes.

Management outlines margin-improvement strategies.

Volatility in crude pricing and inventory losses subside.

💡 Consider only as a speculative play if you're betting on oil-cycle recovery. Otherwise, sit tight or scout stronger PSU energy players for more consistent dividends and margins.

Want a sector comparison with MRPL, BPCL or IOC? I can chart a refinery face-off to show who’s truly pumping profits. Let’s fire up the grid.

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