BPCL - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:54 pm

Technical Rating: 4.4

📈 Technical Analysis

• Chart Patterns: Stock is trading close to its 52-week high (382 ₹), showing strong bullish momentum but facing resistance at this level.
• Moving Averages: Current price (366 ₹) is above both 50 DMA (355 ₹) and 200 DMA (330 ₹), confirming an uptrend.
• RSI: At 53.0, RSI is neutral, suggesting balanced momentum without overbought/oversold signals.
• MACD: Positive at 1.83, indicating bullish crossover and short-term upward momentum.
• Bollinger Bands: Price is near the upper band, signaling possible resistance and short-term consolidation.
• Volume Trends: Current volume (42,46,801) is below 1-week average (55,27,582), showing reduced participation near highs.

🎯 Momentum & Trade Zones

• Support Levels: 355 ₹ (50 DMA), 330 ₹ (200 DMA), and strong base at 300 ₹.
• Resistance Levels: 382 ₹ (52-week high). Breakout above this may lead to 395–405 ₹ zone.
• Entry Zone: 355–360 ₹ (near support, favorable risk-reward).
• Exit Zone: 380–395 ₹ (near resistance/top band).
• Trend Status: Trending upward with mild consolidation near highs.

✅ Positive

• Strong ROCE (19.6%) and ROE (18.7%) indicate efficient capital use.
• Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.24) ensures financial stability.
• Attractive dividend yield of 2.72% supports shareholder returns.
• Quarterly PAT growth (+169%) with EPS at 47.1 ₹.
• FII holdings increased (+1.08%), showing foreign investor confidence.

⚠️ Limitation

• Volume participation is weakening near resistance levels.
• DII holdings decreased (-0.87%), showing reduced domestic institutional support.
• Stock trading close to resistance (382 ₹), limiting immediate upside.

📉 Company Negative News

• Domestic institutional investors reduced stake (-0.87%).
• Stock faces strong resistance near 52-week high, risk of short-term consolidation.

📊 Company Positive News

• Quarterly PAT improved from 6,124 Cr. to 6,443 Cr.
• EPS at 47.1 ₹ reflects strong earnings visibility.
• FII stake increased, boosting investor sentiment.
• PEG ratio of 0.55 indicates undervaluation relative to growth.

🏭 Industry

• Industry P/E at 11.3, slightly higher than BPCL’s P/E (7.24), suggesting BPCL trades at a discount.
• Oil & gas sector remains cyclical but supported by strong refining margins and demand recovery.

📝 Conclusion

• BPCL is in a bullish trend, supported by strong fundamentals and technicals.
• Valuations remain attractive compared to industry peers, with healthy dividend yield.
• Optimal strategy: Buy near support (355–360 ₹) and book profits near resistance (380–395 ₹).
• Short-term outlook: Consolidation near highs; long-term outlook remains positive with earnings growth and sector demand.