BPCL - Fundamental Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Fundamental Rating: 4.1

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL) shows a compelling mix of value, resilience, and potential upside. Let’s decode its fundamentals and see if this energy player deserves a place in your long-term portfolio.

🔍 Core Financials

EPS: ₹30.7 — strong earnings base for a mid-300s stock.

ROE: 17.3% | ROCE: 16.2% — solid return metrics, especially in capital-intensive sectors.

Debt-to-Equity: 0.75 — manageable gearing; not alarming for an oil marketing company (OMC).

Quarterly PAT: ₹4,467 Cr vs ₹3,848 Cr — 8.1% contraction shows near-term volatility.

Dividend Yield: 2.99% — attractive for income-focused investors.

⚙️ Operational cash flows and refining margins drive profitability, though regulated pricing adds complexity.

💰 Valuation Check

P/E Ratio: 10.7 — well below industry average (21.6); hints at undervaluation.

P/B Ratio: ~1.78 (₹335 ÷ ₹188) — near fair value range; not overpriced.

PEG Ratio: 1.32 — signals decent growth at reasonable price; not overly stretched.

Intrinsic Value: Current price likely below fair value when discounted for long-term earnings power and asset base.

🛢️ Business Model & Strategic Position

Segment: Oil refining and fuel retailing — staple demand with geopolitical nuances.

Edge

Large market footprint across retail fuel, LPG, and aviation segments.

Government stake adds stability, though caps agility.

Diversifying into renewables and EV charging infrastructure.

Risk Factors

Policy sensitivity around fuel prices.

Margin volatility due to global crude swings.

DII holding slightly down (–0.05%), but FII interest is up (+0.87%).

📈 Technical Picture

RSI: 48.0 — neutral zone; neither overbought nor oversold.

MACD: +2.37 — mild bullish momentum.

Volume: Stronger than average — healthy participation.

🎯 Suggested Entry Zone

₹320 – ₹335: Good zone aligning with DMA50 and technical base.

₹290 – ₹310: High conviction zone if broader market corrects or crude prices soften.

🛤️ Long-Term Investment Outlook

BPCL can be a steady performer with a 4–7 year horizon, especially if

Crude oil prices remain benign.

Strategic divestment and privatization resume.

Expansion in non-fuel businesses adds diversification.

Need a snapshot comparison with Indian Oil (IOC) or HPCL? That could help zero in on the energy stock that best suits your goals. Let’s line them up if you're game.

Edit in a page