BERGEPAINT - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:00 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.3

📊 BERGEPAINT shows weak-to-moderate potential for swing trading. The stock is trading below both its 50 DMA (551 ₹) and 200 DMA (544 ₹), indicating bearish technicals. Momentum indicators are weak (RSI 37.9, MACD -5.50), suggesting oversold conditions but limited strength. The optimal entry price would be around 525–535 ₹ if the stock stabilizes above 525 ₹. If already holding, consider exiting near 560–570 ₹ (short-term resistance) or cut losses if the price falls below 520 ₹.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Strong return ratios (ROCE 24.9%, ROE 20.0%).
• 💼 Debt-free balance sheet with low leverage (Debt to equity: 0.08).
• 📊 EPS of 8.69 ₹ provides earnings visibility.
• 📈 Dividend yield of 0.72% adds investor appeal.
• 📈 Increase in DII holdings (+0.26%) shows domestic institutional support.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Very high valuation (P/E 60.0 vs Industry PE 38.7).
• 📉 Weak technicals (price below DMA levels, RSI oversold, MACD negative).
• 📉 Quarterly profit declined sharply (PAT down from 321 Cr. to 176 Cr., -23%).
• 📉 PEG ratio of 4.64 suggests expensive growth expectations.
• 📉 Decline in FII holdings (-0.24%).

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Sharp decline in quarterly profits may weigh on investor sentiment.
• 📉 Weak technical momentum limits near-term upside.

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 Strong fundamentals with high ROCE and ROE.
• 💼 Stable financial structure with minimal debt.

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry PE at 38.7, much lower than BERGEPAINT’s P/E, suggesting overvaluation.
• 🎨 Paints and coatings sector benefits from housing demand and infrastructure growth but faces margin pressures from raw material costs.

📌 Conclusion

BERGEPAINT is a weak candidate for swing trading at present due to stretched valuations, profit decline, and bearish technicals. Entry should be considered only if the stock stabilizes near 525–535 ₹ with reversal signals. Exit strategy: book profits near 560–570 ₹ or cut losses if the price falls below 520 ₹. Traders should remain cautious and adopt strict stop-loss discipline.

I can also prepare a comparative swing trade outlook for BERGEPAINT vs BAYERCROP and BATAINDIA to highlight relative strengths and weaknesses.