BASF - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

📈 Swing Trade Analysis for BASF Ltd.

Swing Trade Rating: 3.2

🧭 Technical Overview

Current Price ₹5,052 is slightly above DMA 50 (₹5,004) and DMA 200 (₹5,039), indicating modest technical support but no strong momentum.

RSI (50.1): Neutral — neither oversold nor overbought; directionless at the moment.

MACD (-4.71): Slightly bearish — momentum is weakening.

Volume (26.8k) close to average (24.4k) — shows low volatility and limited trader interest.

📉 Conclusion: Technicals suggest a sideways pattern with no clear breakout cues. Not ideal for short-term action unless a catalyst emerges.

📚 Fundamental Snapshot

P/E (47.8) vs. Industry PE (34.4): Highly overvalued — priced for aggressive growth not reflected in recent earnings.

EPS ₹111 vs. Book Value ₹840 — decent earnings base but pricey at current levels.

ROE (13.4%) & ROCE (17.5%): Solid efficiency metrics — better than average.

Debt-to-Equity (0.05): Extremely low — financially sound.

PAT Qtr Drop: ₹104 Cr → ₹20.8 Cr = -87.1% — severe contraction in profitability.

Dividend Yield (0.40%): Low income appeal.

PEG Ratio: Not provided — hard to contextualize value vs. growth.

🧠 Conclusion: Fundamentally risky due to earnings volatility and high valuation. Good capital efficiency but weak profit trajectory.

✅ Optimal Entry Price

If entering, wait for price to dip to ₹4,950–₹4,980, just below 50-DMA and near short-term support.

Stop-Loss: ₹4,880 — to contain risk if weakness continues.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Conservative Exit: ₹5,200–₹5,250 — next minor resistance level.

Aggressive Exit: ₹5,400–₹5,500 — only if volume spikes and momentum shifts.

Monitor closely for signs of recovery in earnings or strong sector triggers.

💡 Final Take

BASF looks overvalued with troubling profit decline and neutral technicals — not an ideal swing setup right now. Could be considered for watchlist status until there's a price dip or volume breakout. If you're already holding, aim to exit on strength near resistance.

Curious to explore chemical sector peers with better momentum? I’ve got a few ideas that might pop faster.

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