BAJFINANCE - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:00 am

Swing Trade Rating: 4.0

📊 BAJFINANCE shows good potential for swing trading. The stock is trading close to its 50 DMA (1,015 ₹) and comfortably above its 200 DMA (941 ₹), indicating strong technical support. Momentum indicators are neutral (RSI 43.7, MACD slightly negative), suggesting consolidation before the next move. The optimal entry price would be around 995–1,010 ₹ if the stock sustains above 995 ₹. If already holding, consider exiting near 1,080–1,100 ₹ (recent high resistance) or on weakness below 980 ₹.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Strong quarterly profit growth (PAT up from 4,133 Cr. to 4,251 Cr., +17.2%).
• 💼 Solid ROE at 18.5% shows profitability strength.
• 📊 EPS of 25.8 ₹ provides earnings visibility.
• 📈 FII holdings increased (+0.26%), showing foreign investor confidence.
• 📉 PEG ratio of 1.21 suggests fair valuation relative to growth.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 High valuation (P/E 39.2 vs Industry PE 21.2).
• 📉 ROCE relatively weak at 11.5%.
• 📉 Debt-to-equity ratio high at 3.18, typical for NBFCs but adds risk.
• 📉 DII holdings declined (-0.13%).
• 📉 Momentum indicators show limited strength (RSI neutral, MACD negative).

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 No major negative news reported, but stretched valuations and high leverage remain concerns.

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 Strong quarterly profit growth and margin expansion.
• 💼 Increased foreign institutional interest supports sentiment.

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry PE at 21.2, much lower than BAJFINANCE’s P/E, suggesting overvaluation.
• 🏦 NBFC sector benefits from rising credit demand but faces regulatory and interest rate risks.

📌 Conclusion

BAJFINANCE is a good candidate for swing trading with entry near 995–1,010 ₹ and exit near 1,080–1,100 ₹. Strong fundamentals and profit growth support bullish sentiment, though valuations are stretched and leverage is high. Traders should maintain a stop-loss below 980 ₹ to manage risk.

I can also prepare a comparative swing trade outlook for BAJFINANCE vs BAJAJ-AUTO and BSE to highlight relative strengths and weaknesses.