BAJAJFINSV - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

📊 Swing Trade Analysis for BAJAJFINSV Ltd.

Swing Trade Rating: 3.7

⚙️ Technical Overview

Current Price ₹1,973 is trading below DMA 50 ₹2,009 but above DMA 200 ₹1,889 — mixed signals.

RSI (40.6): Leaning towards oversold — could be prepping for a bounce.

MACD (-4.00): Bearish divergence — weak momentum, but not a breakdown.

Volume Lagging: Current trading volume is significantly lower than weekly average — lack of participation weakens conviction.

📉 Conclusion: Technically neutral; watch for RSI reversal and MACD crossover before entering.

📚 Fundamental Snapshot

P/E (33.1) vs. Industry PE (22.6) — pricey, signals premium valuation.

PEG (1.33) — moderate; not expensive relative to growth.

EPS ₹59.6, Book Value ₹453 — solid fundamentals.

Debt-to-Equity (4.92) — very high leverage; typical for a financial services holding company but adds risk for swing setups.

ROE (13.4%) & ROCE (11.0%) — respectable profitability.

Qtr Profit Growth: ₹2,417 Cr → ₹2,789 Cr (+30.5%) — strong momentum.

FII/DII Activity: Positive — marginal institutional confidence boost.

Dividend Yield (0.05%) — irrelevant for short-term trading.

📈 Conclusion: Fundamentally stable but carries high financial leverage; swing potential depends on technical improvement.

✅ Optimal Entry Zone

Buy Range: ₹1,940–₹1,960 — near dynamic support level.

Stop-Loss: ₹1,920 — just below recent swing lows to control downside.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Short-Term Target: ₹2,010–₹2,030 — initial profit-taking zone near 50-DMA.

Extended Target: ₹2,070–₹2,100 — if momentum strengthens and volume picks up.

Trailing Stop-Loss: Raise to ₹1,980 once ₹2,030 is breached — protects upside.

💬 Final Thought

BAJAJFINSV has decent swing potential powered by robust quarterly performance and mildly oversold technicals. Still, the high debt load and weak volume caution against diving in blindly. Keep your eyes on MACD and RSI for clearer signals before making a move.

Want me to screen a few other NBFCs with stronger risk-reward balance? I’ve got a couple in mind.

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