AWL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

✅ Swing Trade Rating: 3.6

Entry Zone: ₹265–₹270 (if RSI cools to 60 and MACD sustains)

Exit if held: ₹295–₹305 (near resistance and volume breakout zone)

📊 Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

• 📈 Current Price: ₹276
• 📉 52W High/Low: ₹349 / ₹232
• 📈 RSI: 66.8 (approaching overbought)
• 📈 MACD: 3.39 (positive crossover)
• 📉 Volume: 34.2L vs 1W Avg 36.7L (slightly below average)
• 📈 FII Holding Change: +9.50%
• 📈 DII Holding Change: +0.20%
• 📉 Qtr Profit Var: -29.7% (YoY drop)
• 📈 PEG Ratio: 2.42 (growth priced in)
• 📈 P/E: 35.2 vs Industry 25.9 (premium valuation)

✅ Positive

• 📈 Strong ROCE & ROE: 21.0% and 13.8% — efficient capital use.
• 📉 Low Debt: Debt-to-equity at 0.09 — near debt-free.
• 📈 FII Accumulation: Sharp increase in foreign investor interest.
• 📈 Above DMA 50 & 200: Bullish trend confirmation.
• 📈 MACD Positive: Indicates momentum building.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Profit Decline: PAT down 29.7% YoY despite revenue growth.
• 📉 Valuation Risk: P/E of 35.2 — ~36% above industry average.
• 📉 Dividend Yield: 0.00% — no passive income support.
• 📉 Volume Dip: Slightly below average — needs confirmation.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Q2FY26 PAT Fall: Net profit dropped 21% YoY despite 22% revenue growth.
• 📉 Margin Pressure: Higher expenses and volatile edible oil prices dented profitability.

📈 Company Positive News

• 🚀 Revenue Record: ₹17,605 Cr in Q2 — highest ever quarterly revenue.
• 📦 Packaged Food Strategy: Targeting 30% volume share in 5 years to offset oil volatility.
• 📈 Retail Reach: Expanded to 9 lakh outlets with strong e-commerce traction.
• 👔 Leadership Change: Shrikant Kanhere appointed MD & CEO — strategic realignment underway.

🏭 Industry

• 📈 FMCG Diversification: Players like Marico and AWL shifting toward branded staples and packaged foods.
• 📦 Staple Demand: Rising demand for oats, muesli, and soya nuggets supports margin expansion.

🧾 Conclusion

• ✅ Technically favorable for swing trade with MACD, RSI, and DMA alignment.
• 📥 Entry near ₹265–₹270 if RSI cools and volume confirms.
• 📤 Exit near ₹295–₹305 (resistance zone and breakout ceiling).
• ⚠️ Watch for margin volatility — suitable for short-term tactical trades with alert logic.

Sources: Business Standard, ET Retail, Moneycontrol