AWL - Fundamental Analysis: Financial Health & Valuation

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:16 pm

Fundamental Rating: 3.7

Here’s a comprehensive analysis of Adani Wilmar Ltd (AWL)

🧾 Core Financials

Profitability & Growth

Quarterly PAT rose to ₹225 Cr from ₹157 Cr, but YoY profit variation is down 30.6%, indicating inconsistent earnings.

EPS: ₹8.59 — modest, reflecting thin margins typical of FMCG commodity players.

ROCE: 21.0% and ROE: 13.8% — solid capital efficiency, above industry average.

Debt & Liquidity

Debt-to-equity: 0.20 — low leverage, indicating strong financial discipline.

Dividend Yield: 0.00% — reinvestment-focused, typical for growth-stage FMCG firms.

📊 Valuation Indicators

Metric Value Industry Avg Remarks

P/E Ratio 30.2 29.3 Slight premium

P/B Ratio ~3.6 ~3.5 Fairly valued

PEG Ratio 2.07 ~1 Overpriced relative to growth

Intrinsic Value ~₹220–₹240 — Slightly overvalued

Valuation is moderately stretched, with PEG suggesting growth may not justify current pricing.

🏢 Business Model & Competitive Edge

Core Operations: Edible oils, packaged foods, and FMCG staples.

Strengths

Strong brand recall with Fortune and other household names.

Wide distribution network and rural penetration.

Backed by Wilmar International and Adani Group — strategic sourcing and scale advantage.

Risks

Commodity price volatility affects margins.

Low margin business with limited pricing power.

📉 Technical & Entry Zone

Current Price: ₹260

DMA 50/200: ₹260 / ₹276 — trading near short-term support.

RSI: 50.9 — neutral zone.

MACD: 0.17 — flat momentum.

Suggested Entry Zone: ₹240–₹250 range, ideally near ₹232 support or below intrinsic value.

🕰️ Long-Term Holding Guidance

Hold if already invested, especially for FMCG exposure in rural India.

Wait for dips before fresh entry due to valuation and margin risks.

Ideal for long-term only if

Revenue growth sustains above 15% CAGR.

Margin expansion and product diversification improve earnings quality.

📈 Forecasts suggest AWL could reach ₹373–₹385 by end of 2025 if macro trends align

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. However, long-term performance has been weak, with a 3-year decline of over 50%

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Would you like a peer comparison with Patanjali Foods or a breakdown of AWL’s rural market strategy?

1

stockpricearchive.com

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dailybulls.in

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