AWL - Investment Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Investment Rating: 3.8

📊 Fundamental & Valuation Analysis

AWL Agri Business Ltd (formerly Adani Wilmar) operates in the FMCG space, primarily in edible oils and packaged foods. While the company has shown resilience in revenue growth, its profitability and valuation metrics suggest caution.

🔍 Key Metrics

Metric Value Interpretation

ROE 13.9% Moderate return on equity

ROCE 20.9% Strong capital efficiency

PEG Ratio 1.97 Slightly overvalued for growth

Dividend Yield 0.00% No income generation

Debt-to-Equity 0.21 Healthy balance sheet

P/E Ratio 30.0 Fair vs industry PE of 30.2

Price-to-Book ~3.65 Reasonable valuation

📈 Growth & Profitability

EPS: ₹8.84 — modest earnings base

PAT Q1FY26: ₹236 Cr vs ₹190 Cr — strong QoQ growth

Revenue Q1FY26: ₹17,059 Cr — up 20.4% YoY

EBITDA Margin: ~3.9% — low but improving

📉 Technical & Trend Analysis

Current Price: ₹265

RSI: 46.3 — neutral zone

MACD: +2.26 — mild bullish momentum

DMA 50/200: ₹267 / ₹284 — trading below long-term average

Volume: Below average — weak conviction

📌 Ideal Entry Price Zone

Support Levels: ₹250 and ₹232

Fair Entry Range: ₹245–₹260

Below ₹260 offers better margin of safety

Avoid entry above ₹280 unless breakout confirmed

🧭 Exit Strategy & Holding Period

If you already hold the stock

✅ Hold If

You believe in Wilmar’s global FMCG expertise post-Adani exit

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You expect margin expansion and product diversification

You’re comfortable with low dividend and moderate ROE

🚪 Exit Strategy

Short-Term Exit: If price rallies near ₹300–₹320 without earnings support

Hold Period: 2–4 years to benefit from Wilmar’s operational control and FMCG tailwinds

Re-evaluate: If ROE drops below 10% or PAT growth stagnates for 2+ quarters

🧠 Final Verdict

AWL is a moderately attractive FMCG play with improving fundamentals and a clean ownership structure after Adani’s full exit

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. While valuation is fair, the lack of dividends and thin margins make it better suited for growth-focused investors with medium-term horizons.

Would you like a peer comparison with Patanjali Foods or Marico to explore alternatives in the FMCG space?

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