ATGL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:00 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.9

📊 Adani Total Gas (ATGL) shows weak technicals and stretched valuations. The stock trades below both 50 DMA (607 ₹) and 200 DMA (640 ₹), with RSI at 35.7 indicating oversold conditions and MACD negative. Fundamentals are mixed — ROCE (17.4%) and ROE (16.7%) are decent, but P/E of 101 is far above industry average (20.4), and PEG ratio of 11.6 suggests expensive growth. Quarterly profits remained flat (162 Cr.), showing stagnation. This makes ATGL a risky swing trade candidate, suitable only for cautious short-term plays near support levels.

💡 Optimal Entry Price: Around 540–560 ₹ (near support zone close to 52-week low).

🚪 Exit Strategy: If already holding, consider exiting near 600–620 ₹ resistance or if price falls below 530 ₹ support.

✅ Positive

• 📈 ROCE (17.4%) and ROE (16.7%) show moderate efficiency.
• 💵 Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45 indicates manageable leverage.
• 📊 EPS of 5.61 ₹ provides earnings support.
• 📈 Strong trading liquidity with volume ~2.7 lakh shares.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 Extremely high P/E (101) compared to industry average (20.4), suggesting severe overvaluation.
• 📉 PEG ratio of 11.6 indicates growth is expensive relative to earnings.
• 📉 Dividend yield of 0.04% offers negligible income return.
• 📉 Price below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA, signaling technical weakness.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Quarterly profit variation (-9.22%) shows earnings stagnation.
• 📉 FII holdings decreased (-0.14%), reflecting reduced foreign investor confidence.
• 📉 DII holdings decreased (-0.08%), showing weaker domestic institutional support.

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 PAT remained stable at 162 Cr., showing resilience despite sector challenges.
• 📊 EPS remains positive, supporting valuation despite weak growth.
• 📈 Liquidity remains strong with consistent trading volumes above average.

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry PE is 20.4, far lower than ATGL’s 101, indicating severe overvaluation.
• 📈 Gas distribution sector outlook remains positive, supported by infrastructure expansion and clean energy demand.

📝 Conclusion

⚖️ Adani Total Gas is fundamentally moderate but technically weak and highly overvalued, making it a risky swing trade candidate. Entry near 540–560 ₹ offers a cautious opportunity, with exit near 600–620 ₹. Strict risk management is essential given stretched valuation, weak technical indicators, and stagnant profitability.

I can also prepare a peer comparison of ATGL with Indraprastha Gas and Mahanagar Gas to highlight relative swing trade opportunities. Would you like me to do that?