ATGL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

✅ Swing Trade Rating: 3.2

Entry Zone: ₹610–₹625 (only if MACD turns positive and RSI > 52)

Exit if held: ₹660–₹680 (near 200 DMA and resistance zone)

📊 Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

• 📉 Current Price: ₹629
• 📉 52W High/Low: ₹862 / ₹533
• 📉 RSI: 50.4 (neutral)
• 📉 MACD: -0.41 (bearish crossover)
• 📉 Volume: 6.2L vs 1W Avg 25.6L (significantly below average)
• 📉 FII/DII Holding: Both slightly reduced positions
• 📉 Qtr Profit Var: -9.22% (flat YoY)
• 📉 P/E: 112 vs Industry 19.7 (very high valuation)
• 📉 PEG Ratio: 12.8 (overpriced growth)

✅ Positive

• 📈 ROCE & ROE: 17.4% and 16.7% — strong capital efficiency.
• 📉 Low Debt: Debt-to-equity at 0.45 — healthy balance sheet.
• 📈 EPS: ₹5.61 — stable earnings base.
• 📈 Above 50 DMA: Price holding above short-term support.
• 📈 Network Expansion: 577 CNG stations and 8.93 lakh PNG homes connected.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 MACD Negative: Indicates weak momentum.
• 📉 Volume Drop: Significantly below average — low conviction.
• 📉 Valuation Risk: P/E of 112 and PEG of 12.8 — extremely stretched.
• 📉 Dividend Yield: 0.04% — negligible passive income.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Q2FY26 PAT: ₹162 Cr — down 9% YoY due to 26% spike in input gas prices.
• 📉 Margin Pressure: Lower allocation of APM gas replaced by high-cost NWG and HPHT gas.

📈 Company Positive News

• 🚀 Revenue Growth: ₹1,576 Cr in Q2FY26 — up 19% YoY on 18% CNG and 11% PNG volume growth.
• 📈 Credit Rating: Upgraded to AA+ by three agencies.
• 📦 EV Charging: 4,209 points across 26 states — strong e-mobility footprint.
• 📈 Digital Penetration: 98% collections via My Adani Gas App.

🔥 Industry

• 📈 City Gas Demand: Rising urbanization and EV adoption boosting CNG/PNG infrastructure.
• 📉 Input Cost Volatility: Global LNG price swings impacting margins.

🧾 Conclusion

• ⚠️ Not ideal for fresh swing entry unless MACD turns positive and volume improves.
• 📤 If already held, exit near ₹660–₹680 (200 DMA and resistance zone).
• 📈 Fundamentals stable, but valuation and momentum weak — suitable for cautious trades with alert logic.

Sources

ET EnergyWorld – Q2 PAT Drop

The Hindu BusinessLine – Margin Pressure

[Adani Newsroom – Q2 Highlights](https://www.adani.com/newsroom/media-releases/adani-total-gas-h1fy25-and-q