ATGL - Fundamental Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Fundamental Rating: 2.6

Let’s ignite an in-depth review of Adani Total Gas Ltd. (ATGL) — a city gas distributor positioned within India's clean energy narrative but currently facing valuation turbulence.

🔍 Core Financial Overview

Profitability & Returns

ROE: 16.8% and ROCE: 17.5% — respectable, though not extraordinary for a high-growth narrative.

EPS: ₹5.89 appears modest when weighed against its steep price and valuation multiple.

Qtr Profit Var: -3.84% suggests a slight profit dip — potentially signaling margin pressure or sluggish volume growth.

Debt & Leverage

Debt-to-equity: 0.44 — comfortably low, enabling capital expansion flexibility.

Dividend Yield: 0.04% — virtually non-existent, indicating reinvestment focus rather than income generation.

📊 Valuation Metrics

Metric Value Insight

P/E Ratio 107 ⚠️ Extremely overvalued vs Industry PE: 18.5

P/B Ratio ~16.47 High — indicates heavy premium on assets

PEG Ratio 12.2 🚩 Suggests price growth far outpaces earnings growth

Intrinsic Value ❌ Below CMP Fundamentals don’t support current valuation

🧠 Business Model & Strategic Edge

Operates in city gas distribution (CGD) — critical for PNG (piped natural gas) and CNG markets, benefiting from India’s clean energy policies.

JV with TotalEnergies enhances technical credibility and geographic spread.

Growth hinges on regulatory support and rollout in new urban clusters.

Institutional sentiment is mixed

FII Hold ↓ -0.20% — minor foreign trimming

DII Hold ↑ +0.08% — marginal domestic accumulation

📉 Technical Signals

RSI: 39.8 — tilting toward oversold zone, short-term weakness visible.

MACD: -6.20 — bearish momentum persists.

Price trading below both DMA 50 & DMA 200, confirming technical downtrend.

52W Range: ₹533–₹942, current price closer to 52W low — suggests room for rebound but still technically fragile.

📍 Suggested Entry Zone & Investment Outlook

Entry Zone: ₹560–₹610 — value zone near technical support and RSI trough.

Long-Term Guidance

Suitable only for high-risk investors betting on CGD expansion and policy tailwinds.

Avoid chasing price unless earnings begin to justify valuations.

Watch closely for volume traction, regulatory pricing models, and debt stability in new city bids.

Want me to line this up against peers like Indraprastha Gas (IGL), Mahanagar Gas (MGL), or Gujarat Gas for a cleaner comparative layout? It could help refine your energy strategy 🔍🔥.

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