TIMKEN - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.8

📉 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Current Price (₹3,155) is below the 50-DMA (₹3,279) and just above the 200-DMA (₹3,141) — indicating weak short-term momentum.

RSI (35.6): Approaching oversold territory — potential for a bounce, but not confirmed.

MACD (4.23): Positive, but not strongly divergent — momentum is sluggish.

Volume: Slightly below weekly average — low trader interest.

📊 Fundamental Snapshot

P/E (52.2) vs Industry PE (48.7): Slightly overvalued.

PEG Ratio (4.80): Very high — suggests expensive valuation relative to growth.

ROCE (20.9%) & ROE (17.0%): Strong — indicates efficient capital use.

EPS (₹60.5): Solid earnings base.

Dividend Yield (1.14%): Offers modest income.

Debt to Equity (0.01): Virtually debt-free — financially sound.

Quarterly Profit Drop: From ₹187 Cr. to ₹104 Cr. — significant decline.

Institutional Activity: FII ↓ (-1.24%), DII ↑ (+0.88%) — mixed sentiment.

⚖️ Swing Trade Suitability

Pros

Strong ROCE and ROE.

Near 200-DMA — potential support zone.

RSI nearing oversold — possible technical rebound.

Cons

Weak volume and momentum.

PEG ratio suggests overvaluation.

Recent earnings drop.

FII selling pressure.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Entry Zone: ₹3,120–₹3,140 — near 200-DMA support. Wait for RSI to cross 40 and volume to pick up before entering.

🚪 Exit Strategy

If Holding: Consider exiting near ₹3,280–₹3,300 — resistance at 50-DMA.

Stop Loss: ₹3,080 — breach below this level could trigger further downside.

TIMKEN is fundamentally strong but technically weak for a swing setup right now. It may offer a short-term bounce from support, but confirmation is essential. If you're already in, you're near a key support — just keep an eye on RSI and volume for signs of recovery.

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