SRF - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.7

📊 Analysis Summary

SRF Ltd. presents a mixed setup for swing trading. While some technical indicators suggest potential support and a possible bounce, fundamental and sentiment factors raise caution. Here's a breakdown

✅ Strengths

Near 50 DMA Support: Current price ₹3,110 is hovering around the 50 DMA of ₹3,105, which may act as a technical support level.

Healthy Volume Base: Though current volume is below the 1-week average, it’s still substantial, indicating liquidity.

Low Debt-to-Equity (0.37): Financially stable, which reduces downside risk.

Strong Long-Term Trend: Trading well above 200 DMA (₹2,838), suggesting bullish bias over the medium term.

⚠️ Weaknesses

High P/E (64.4 vs Industry 27.2): Overvaluation risk; not ideal for short-term swing unless momentum supports.

Negative MACD (-6.23): Bearish momentum signal.

RSI at 46.6: Neutral zone, not oversold — lacks strong reversal signal.

Declining PAT: ₹432 Cr. vs ₹526 Cr. previous quarter — earnings contraction.

FII Selling: Slight reduction in foreign institutional holding (-0.04%) may reflect cautious sentiment.

📈 Optimal Entry Price

Buy Zone: ₹3,080–₹3,100 This range is just below the 50 DMA and may offer a low-risk entry if price stabilizes or shows reversal signs.

📉 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Target Exit: ₹3,250–₹3,300 Near recent high and psychological resistance.

Stop Loss: ₹3,020 Below recent support and 50 DMA — exit if price breaks down.

🧠 Final Thoughts

SRF is not a high-conviction swing trade due to weak momentum and valuation concerns. However, if price holds above the 50 DMA and volume picks up, a short-term bounce toward ₹3,250+ is possible. Keep tight risk controls.

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