RKFORGE - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

📊 Swing Trade Analysis: Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd. (RKFORGE)

Swing Trade Rating: 2.3

🧯 Technical Snapshot

Current Price: ₹599 sits below both DMA 50 (₹647) and DMA 200 (₹725) — confirming bearish structure.

RSI at 32.7 — oversold zone; potential for reversal, but no confirmation.

MACD at −9.75 — deep in negative territory; momentum is weak.

52-week Index at 9.09% — price has fallen significantly from recent highs.

Volume above 1-week average — could signal accumulation, but context still bearish.

📊 Fundamental Rundown

Valuation

P/E: 32.7 vs Industry PE of 31.2 — fair, slightly above sector average.

PEG Ratio: 1.74 — decent, suggests some growth justification, but not overly cheap.

Profitability

ROCE: 6.93%, ROE: 11.6% — below-par returns relative to peers.

EPS: ₹22.9 — respectable, though not supportive of high valuation.

PAT Surge: ₹20.9 Cr → ₹200 Cr — staggering quarterly growth (206%), but sustainability in question.

Institutional Sentiment

FII change: −0.03%, DII change: −2.40% — institutions pulling back; bearish implication.

Debt & Dividend

Debt-to-equity: 0.70 — reasonable gearing.

Dividend Yield: 0.33% — low and not meaningful for short-term trading.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Buy Zone: ₹570–₹580

Near recent support and psychological cushion.

Watch for RSI move above 38 and MACD contraction to validate reversal.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Target Exit Range: ₹640–₹650

Aligned with 50 DMA and immediate resistance.

Stop-Loss: ₹565

Just beneath recent support level to minimize downside.

RKFORGE shows signs of bottoming out but lacks momentum strength to justify a confident swing entry. While the recent profit explosion is impressive, the weak technicals and cautious institutional activity suggest waiting for clearer trend reversal. If you're keen on forging ahead, monitoring MACD and RSI for a turnaround could pay off — otherwise, I’m happy to scout more solid mid-cap engineering setups. 🔧📉

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