RKFORGE - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:55 pm

Technical Rating: 2.4

📊 Chart Patterns: RKFORGE is trading well below its 50 DMA (536 ₹) and 200 DMA (614 ₹). Current price (479 ₹) is near its 52-week low (473 ₹), showing strong bearish momentum and breakdown from previous support levels.

📈 Moving Averages: Price < 50 DMA and < 200 DMA → bearish alignment, confirming weakness in both short-term and long-term trends.

📉 RSI: 25.9 → oversold territory, suggesting potential technical rebound but overall weak momentum.

📉 MACD: -11.1 → bearish crossover, confirming strong downward momentum.

📊 Bollinger Bands: Price near lower band, indicating oversold conditions but also risk of further downside.

📊 Volume Trends: Current volume (7,40,007) is significantly higher than 1-week average (3,90,386) → heavy selling pressure, showing distribution rather than accumulation.

📍 Support Levels: 473 ₹ (52-week low), 460 ₹, and 440 ₹.

📍 Resistance Levels: 500 ₹, 536 ₹ (DMA 50), and 614 ₹ (DMA 200).

🔎 Trend: The stock is reversing downward with strong bearish signals. A breakdown below 473 ₹ could trigger further decline, while a rebound above 500–536 ₹ may signal short-term recovery.

Positive

• 📊 EPS at 13.5 ₹ provides valuation support.
• 📊 ROE at 10.9% shows moderate shareholder returns.
• 📊 Dividend yield of 0.42% offers modest income.

Limitation

• ⚠️ Price trading near 52-week low (0.96% of range) → weak sentiment.
• ⚠️ PAT collapsed from 21.5 Cr. to 0.37 Cr. (–99.3%).
• ⚠️ RSI oversold but momentum remains weak.
• ⚠️ Debt-to-equity ratio at 0.71 indicates moderate leverage risk.

Company Negative News

• 📉 FII holdings declined (–1.74%), showing reduced foreign investor confidence.
• 📉 DII holdings also decreased (–0.10%).
• 📉 Severe quarterly profit decline highlights operational challenges.

Company Positive News

• 📈 EPS remains positive despite profit slump.
• 📊 Dividend yield provides some investor support.

Industry

• 🏭 Forging and engineering sector PE at 30.0, lower than RKFORGE’s PE (35.4), suggesting valuation premium despite weak fundamentals.
• 📊 Industry supported by auto and infrastructure demand, but cyclical pressures remain.

Conclusion

🔎 RKFORGE is showing strong bearish reversal signals with price below key moving averages, RSI oversold, and MACD negative. Optimal entry zone lies near 470–480 ₹ only for high-risk traders looking for technical rebound. Exit/resistance zone is 500–536 ₹. Long-term investors should remain cautious due to collapsing profits and weak fundamentals, while short-term traders may attempt rebound trades only if price sustains above 500 ₹ with volume support.