PAYTM - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

Swing Trade Rating: 4.0

📊 Paytm shows a strong quarterly turnaround and bullish MACD, but fundamentals remain weak. Entry is ideal around ₹1,220–₹1,240. If already held, consider exit near ₹1,310–₹1,320 unless breakout strength confirms.

Technical & Fundamental Snapshot

• Current Price: ₹1,268
• DMA 50 / 200: ₹1,223 / ₹1,021
• RSI: 52.2 (Neutral zone)
• MACD: 22.5 (Bullish crossover)
• ROCE / ROE: -11.8% / -12.0%
• EPS: ₹1.57
• Volume: 21.6L vs Avg 21.7L

Positive

• Quarterly PAT turnaround from -₹50.8 Cr. to ₹106 Cr.—strong earnings momentum
• MACD bullish and RSI neutral—technical setup supports swing
• Trading above DMA 50 and 200—trend confirmation
• DII holding increased by 4.11%—domestic confidence building
• Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01—virtually debt-free

Limitation

• Negative ROCE and ROE—poor capital efficiency
• No dividend yield—no passive income support
• FII holding dropped by 3.16%—foreign sentiment cautious
• High valuation vs book value—premium pricing risk

Company Negative News

• Regulatory scrutiny over lending partnerships and KYC compliance
• Brokerage downgrades due to margin pressure and valuation concerns

Company Positive News

• Q2 profit beat estimates—first profitable quarter since IPO
• Strong growth in merchant payments and loan disbursements
• Analysts see potential for sustained profitability in FY26

Industry

• Fintech sector gaining traction with digital adoption and UPI expansion
• Industry PE: 43.1 vs Paytm EPS of ₹1.57—valuation still evolving
• November outlook for tech stocks improving amid rate cut optimism

Conclusion

• Entry Zone: ₹1,220–₹1,240 (near DMA 50)
• Exit Zone: ₹1,310–₹1,320 (resistance near 52w high)
• Rating: 4.0 — speculative swing candidate with earnings momentum and technical support

Sources