NEWGEN - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.6

📉 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Current Price (₹858) is below both 50 DMA (₹1,066) and 200 DMA (₹1,101) — clear downtrend.

RSI (18.7) — extremely oversold, but not yet showing reversal signs.

MACD (−80.1) — strong bearish momentum.

Volume: Significantly below 1-week average — indicates weak interest and low conviction.

📊 Fundamental Overview

Valuation

P/E (38.3) vs Industry P/E (29.1) — slightly overvalued.

PEG Ratio (1.62) — suggests expensive growth.

EPS (₹22.5) — decent earnings base.

Book Value (₹107) — price trades at ~8× book value, premium valuation.

Profitability

ROCE (28.0%) and ROE (22.5%) — excellent operational efficiency.

Dividend Yield (0.58%) — modest, adds some cushion.

Quarterly Performance

PAT Qtr: ₹49.7 Cr vs Prev Qtr: ₹108 Cr — sharp decline, but Qtr Profit Var: +4.52% suggests some recovery.

Debt-to-Equity (0.04) — very low, financially strong.

FII/DII Holding

FII down (−0.22%), DII up (+0.33%) — mixed institutional sentiment.

⚠️ Swing Trade Strategy

Not ideal for swing trading right now due to

Oversold RSI without reversal

Strong bearish MACD

Price below key moving averages

Weak volume

Watchlist Entry Zone: ₹820–₹840 (if RSI starts rising and MACD flattens)

Target Exit (if reversal confirmed): ₹1,000–₹1,050

Stop Loss: ₹790 (recent support zone)

🧭 If You Already Hold the Stock

Hold only if you're long-term bullish and can tolerate volatility.

Exit if price fails to hold ₹820 or RSI continues to decline below 20.

Re-enter only on confirmation of trend reversal (RSI > 30 and MACD crossover).

This stock has strong fundamentals but is technically weak for swing trading at the moment. Better to wait for signs of recovery before entering.

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