NBCC - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 07:01 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.7

📊 NBCC shows strong fundamentals and moderate technical signals, making it a fair candidate for swing trading. The stock is trading above both its 50 DMA (112 ₹) and 200 DMA (108 ₹), reflecting bullish long-term strength. RSI at 43.0 indicates neutral momentum, while MACD is slightly negative (-1.12), suggesting short-term consolidation. Optimal entry would be near 110–112 ₹ on pullbacks. If already holding, exit should be considered near 128–130 ₹, close to resistance levels.

✅ Positive

• 📈 Strong ROCE (32.1%) and ROE (24.1%) highlight excellent capital efficiency.
• 💰 Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00 indicates a debt-free balance sheet.
• 📊 Trading above DMA 50 and DMA 200 confirms bullish technical trend.
• 📉 Quarterly PAT improved from 114 Cr. to 173 Cr., showing profit growth (+39.5%).
• 📊 Increase in FII holdings (+0.35%) reflects foreign investor confidence.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 High P/E ratio (49.3) compared to industry PE (18.8), showing significant overvaluation.
• 📊 PEG ratio of 1.79 suggests valuation is not attractive relative to growth.
• 📉 EPS of 2.05 ₹ is modest despite strong market cap.
• 📊 Decline in DII holdings (-0.26%) shows reduced domestic institutional confidence.
• 📉 Lower trading volumes compared to average (1.05 Cr. vs. 1.68 Cr.) show reduced participation.

🚨 Company Negative News

• 📉 Decline in DII holdings may weigh on sentiment.
• 📉 Weak technical indicators (neutral RSI, negative MACD) suggest short-term downside risk.

🌟 Company Positive News

• 📈 Strong quarterly profit growth supports investor confidence.
• 💰 Debt-free structure and robust efficiency ratios strengthen fundamentals.
• 📊 Increase in FII holdings shows foreign investor support.

🏭 Industry

• 📊 Industry PE at 18.8 vs. NBCC’s PE of 49.3 indicates significant overvaluation compared to peers.
• 🏗️ Construction and infrastructure sector benefits from government contracts but faces margin pressures and cyclical demand.

📌 Conclusion

Overall, NBCC is a moderate swing trade candidate with bullish technicals and strong fundamentals but valuation concerns. Entry around 110–112 ₹ is optimal, while exit should be considered near 128–130 ₹. Traders should monitor institutional sentiment and technical indicators closely before committing to positions.

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