MSUMI - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 2.8

📉 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Current Price (₹37.5) is below both 50-DMA (₹40.2) and 200-DMA (₹39.7) — bearish short-term trend.

RSI (30.5): Approaching oversold territory — potential for bounce, but not yet confirmed.

MACD (-0.71): Negative — momentum is weak.

Volume: Slightly above weekly average — suggests some interest, but not strong conviction.

📊 Fundamental Snapshot

P/E (41.4) vs Industry PE (29.5): Overvalued.

PEG Ratio (4.20): Very high — implies expensive relative to growth.

ROCE (42.5%) & ROE (35.9%): Excellent — strong operational and financial efficiency.

Debt to Equity (0.16): Very low — financially stable.

EPS (₹0.90): Low — earnings base is modest.

Book Value (₹2.56) vs Price (₹37.5): High premium — not ideal for swing entry.

Quarterly Profit Decline (-3.88%): Weakening performance.

FII Holding ↑ (0.26%), DII Holding ↓ (-0.33%): Mixed institutional sentiment.

⚖️ Swing Trade Suitability

Why It’s Not Ideal Right Now

Weak technicals with price below key averages.

RSI and MACD suggest bearish momentum.

Valuation is stretched with high P/E and PEG.

Recent earnings decline adds caution.

What Could Improve It

RSI rising above 35 with MACD crossover.

Price reclaiming 50-DMA with volume surge.

🎯 Optimal Entry Price

Entry Zone: ₹35–₹36 — near recent support and oversold RSI. Only enter if signs of reversal appear (e.g., bullish MACD crossover or RSI > 40).

🚪 Exit Strategy

If Holding: Consider exiting near ₹40–₹42 — resistance zone around 50-DMA.

Stop Loss: ₹34 — below recent support to manage downside risk.

MSUMI has stellar fundamentals but is currently weighed down by weak technicals and expensive valuation. It’s not a prime swing candidate yet, but worth watching for a reversal setup.

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