HDFCBANK - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 3.6

📊 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Trend Setup: Price is sitting right on the 50 DMA (₹977) and above the 200 DMA (₹936), indicating a neutral-to-bullish base.

MACD Negative: At −4.38, MACD suggests short-term weakness—momentum is cooling.

RSI Neutral: 53.6 indicates consolidation—neither oversold nor overbought.

Volume Strong: Current volume (1.86 Cr) is above 1-week average (1.70 Cr), showing sustained interest.

📈 Fundamental Snapshot

Valuation Reasonable: P/E of 21.6 vs industry average of 12.6 and PEG of 0.98—fairly priced with growth support.

Moderate Efficiency: ROCE 7.35%, ROE 14.3%—acceptable but not swing-grade elite.

Earnings Growth: PAT rose from ₹17,616 Cr to ₹18,155 Cr (+12.2%)—steady performance.

High Leverage: Debt-to-equity of 6.31 is typical for banks but worth noting for risk control.

Institutional Sentiment: FII and DII both increased holdings—net positive.

🧠 Analyst Sentiment

Motilal Oswal projects a 19% upside with a target of ₹1,150, citing rural recovery and MSME lending as key drivers

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. The bank’s expanded branch network and consistent earnings growth support a bullish outlook.

🎯 Trade Strategy

🔹 Optimal Entry Price

₹955–₹965: Ideal pullback zone below 50 DMA. Entry only if MACD flattens and RSI crosses 58 with volume confirmation.

🔹 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

₹1,015–₹1,020: Near 52-week high and resistance zone. Exit if RSI crosses 70 or MACD turns flat.

Extended Target: ₹1,150 if momentum resumes and volume confirms.

Trailing Stop: ₹940 to protect downside.

🧠 Summary

HDFCBANK offers a fundamentally strong but technically cautious swing setup. While valuation and earnings are solid, MACD weakness and moderate ROCE suggest waiting for confirmation. Entry near ₹960 with MACD recovery offers a favorable risk-reward, and exit near ₹1,020–₹1,150 is prudent unless momentum accelerates.

Want me to prep a filtered basket with PEG < 1, ROCE > 15%, and MACD > 5 for tighter swing setups?

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