HAL - Technical Analysis with Chart Patterns & Indicators

Last Updated Time : 20 Dec 25, 03:54 pm

Technical Rating: 3.7

📊 Chart Patterns: HAL is trading below both its 50 DMA (4,538 ₹) and 200 DMA (4,529 ₹), showing short-term weakness despite strong long-term gains. Current price (4,305 ₹) is near support at 4,250–4,300 ₹, with resistance around 4,500–4,550 ₹.

📉 Moving Averages: Price below both averages indicates bearish short-term sentiment, though long-term trend remains intact.

📉 RSI: At 34.0, RSI suggests the stock is oversold, indicating potential for a rebound.

📉 MACD: Negative at -108, confirming bearish momentum and signaling caution for short-term traders.

📊 Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions and possible short-term bounce.

📉 Volume Trends: Current volume (5,83,980) is below average weekly volume (7,92,846), showing reduced participation and lack of strong buying interest.

📌 Short-term Momentum Signals: Weak momentum with oversold RSI. A bounce is possible if price holds above 4,250 ₹. Breakout above 4,500 ₹ could trigger recovery toward 4,700 ₹.

🎯 Optimal Entry Zone: 4,250–4,300 ₹ (near support).

🎯 Optimal Exit Zone: 4,500–4,550 ₹ (near resistance).

📉 Trend Status: The stock is consolidating with a bearish bias, awaiting reversal signals.

Positive

• Strong ROCE (33.9%) and ROE (26.0%) reflect excellent operational efficiency.
• Debt-free balance sheet (0.00 debt-to-equity) ensures financial stability.
• Quarterly PAT growth (1,663 Cr. vs 1,377 Cr.) shows earnings improvement.
• EPS of 126 ₹ highlights strong profitability.

Limitation

• Stock trading below both 50 DMA and 200 DMA indicates weak technical strength.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum, limiting short-term upside.
• Dividend yield at 0.94% is modest compared to industry peers.

Company Negative News

• DII holding decreased by -0.03%, showing slight reduction in domestic institutional support.

Company Positive News

• FII holding increased by 0.10%, reflecting foreign investor confidence.
• Quarterly PAT growth of 11.9% highlights operational resilience.

Industry

• Industry PE at 57.9 is higher than HAL’s PE (34.1), suggesting HAL is relatively undervalued.
• Defense and aerospace sector outlook remains strong with government spending and export opportunities.

Conclusion

⚖️ HAL is fundamentally strong with high ROCE/ROE, debt-free status, and consistent profit growth. Technically, the stock is consolidating with bearish signals from RSI and MACD. Entry is favorable near 4,250–4,300 ₹ with cautious exit around 4,500–4,550 ₹. Long-term investors may hold for sector strength, while short-term traders should wait for confirmation above 4,500 ₹.