GAIL - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 19 Sept 25, 2:15 pm

Swing Trade Rating: 3.4

📊 Technical & Momentum Analysis

Trend Setup: Price is hovering around 50 DMA (₹179) and slightly below 200 DMA (₹184), indicating a neutral-to-weak trend.

MACD Mildly Positive: At 0.89, MACD shows early signs of momentum but lacks strength.

RSI Neutral: 58.0 suggests moderate strength, but not yet in breakout territory.

Volume Drop: Current volume (63.4L) is below 1-week average (86.3L), indicating reduced participation.

📈 Fundamental Snapshot

Valuation Attractive: P/E of 13.8 vs industry average of 14.6 is fair; dividend yield of 4.14% adds holding cushion.

Strong Returns: ROCE 15.3%, ROE 14.1%—solid capital efficiency.

Profit Decline: PAT dropped from ₹2,049 Cr to ₹1,886 Cr (−30.8%)—a concern for earnings momentum.

Low Leverage: Debt-to-equity of 0.26 offers balance sheet stability.

Institutional Sentiment: FII slightly increased (+0.12%), DII slightly reduced (−0.09%)—neutral stance.

🎯 Trade Strategy

🔹 Optimal Entry Price

₹174–₹177: Near recent support and below 50 DMA. Entry only if MACD strengthens and volume picks up.

🔹 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

₹195–₹200: First resistance zone. Consider partial exit if RSI crosses 65 or MACD flattens.

₹230–₹245: Final exit zone near 52-week high if momentum sustains.

Trailing Stop: ₹172 to protect downside.

🧠 Summary

GAIL offers a value-based swing setup with strong fundamentals and a high dividend yield, but technicals are currently neutral. Best suited for cautious entries near support with confirmation. For cleaner momentum setups, consider stocks with MACD > 5, PEG < 1.5, and ROCE > 15%.

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