COFORGE - Swing Trade Analysis

Last Updated Time : 02 Aug 25, 12:58 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.5

📊 Analysis Summary

COFORGE is a technically oversold stock with strong recent earnings growth, but its high valuation and weak momentum make it a cautious swing trade candidate. While fundamentals are solid, the elevated P/E and PEG ratios suggest the stock is priced for perfection, limiting short-term upside unless sentiment improves.

🔍 Technical Indicators

RSI (34.7): Near oversold — potential for a rebound.

MACD (-27.5): Bearish — momentum is weak.

Price vs DMA

Current Price (₹1,720) is below 50 DMA (₹1,790) but above 200 DMA (₹1,626) — medium-term support is intact.

Volume: Below weekly average — declining interest.

📈 Fundamental Snapshot

P/E (59.6) vs Industry PE (29.1): Highly overvalued.

PEG Ratio (7.32): Very expensive — growth is overpriced.

ROE (16.7%) & ROCE (20.7%): Strong profitability.

EPS (₹30.0) vs Price (₹1,720): Valuation is stretched.

Qtr Profit Growth (+88.5%): Exceptional earnings momentum.

FII Holding ↓ (-2.79%): Significant foreign selling — bearish.

DII Holding ↑ (2.39%): Strong domestic accumulation — supportive.

Debt to Equity (0.17): Low — healthy balance sheet.

✅ Entry Strategy (If Not Holding)

Optimal Entry Price: ₹1,680–₹1,700 range, near short-term support.

Wait for RSI to cross 40 and MACD to flatten or turn positive.

Confirm with volume spike or bullish candlestick pattern.

🚪 Exit Strategy (If Already Holding)

Exit near 50 DMA (₹1,790–₹1,800) or partial booking at ₹1,850.

If price breaks below ₹1,660, consider stop-loss at ₹1,630 to protect downside.

⚖️ Final Verdict

COFORGE is a fundamentally strong but technically weak stock. It’s suitable for swing trading only if technical indicators begin to reverse. Traders should be cautious due to high valuation and recent foreign selling. Best suited for a short-term bounce, not aggressive upside.

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