BALRAMCHIN - Swing Trade Analysis with AI Signals

Last Updated Time : 05 Nov 25, 7:43 am

Swing Trade Rating: 3.2

📉 Balrampur Chini Mills shows weak technicals and declining earnings, but fair valuation and sector support. Entry near ₹440 is optimal. If already held, consider exiting around ₹490–₹500.

📈 Positive

• 📊 ROCE of 9.84% and ROE of 10.1% reflect moderate capital efficiency.
• 💰 EPS of ₹16.0 and Dividend Yield of 0.67% offer reasonable shareholder returns.
• 📉 Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.73 is acceptable for a manufacturing business.
• 📈 Book Value of ₹177 provides a solid asset base.
• 📈 Industry P/E of 14.8 vs stock P/E of 28.2 suggests moderate premium valuation.

⚠️ Limitation

• 📉 RSI at 33.8 and MACD at -9.43 indicate bearish momentum.
• 📉 Trading below DMA 50 and DMA 200 confirms technical weakness.
• 📉 Quarterly PAT dropped from ₹220 Cr. to ₹43.1 Cr. (↓80%).
• 📉 PEG ratio of -2.83 signals poor growth relative to valuation.
• 📉 FII and DII holdings declined, showing reduced institutional confidence.

📉 Company Negative News

• 📉 Earnings impacted by lower sugar realizations and higher input costs.
• 📉 Analysts flagged concerns over margin compression and export restrictions.

📈 Company Positive News

• 📈 Long-term demand for ethanol and green energy supports future growth outlook.
• 📈 Company continues to invest in distillery capacity and diversification.

🌾 Industry

• 🌾 Sugar industry remains volatile due to government pricing controls and monsoon dependency.
• 📊 Ethanol blending targets and green energy policies offer structural tailwinds.

✅ Conclusion

• 📉 Balrampur Chini is a cautious swing trade candidate with weak technicals and earnings pressure.
• 📉 Optimal entry price: ₹440–₹445 (near support and below DMA 50).
• 📈 Exit target: ₹490–₹500 (near DMA 50 and short-term resistance).
• 📌 Watch for RSI recovery above 40 and MACD crossover before entry.

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